TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467168
Played Aug 21Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
111811117119711
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 79.8% is still 79.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
79.8%
79.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Oleksandr Bondarchuk below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 79.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 41–81 Oleksandr Bondarchuk Dmytro Neborak has won 41 of their 122 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:17What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Bondarchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-81 in 122
Bondarchuk
Correct
gap of 40 in 122, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1616 vs Bondarchuk 1948
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 332 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 20% vs Bondarchuk 100%
Bondarchuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 20% vs Bondarchuk 100%
Bondarchuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -2 · Bondarchuk +5
Bondarchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Bondarchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarchuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 3.40 / Bondarchuk 1.30
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Bondarchuk)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467168
Neborak3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 115 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 133
Bondarchuk1.30
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 75 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it85% 55 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak1wins
AwayBondarchuk9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBondarchuk100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak2Bondarchuk8n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S2Neborak2Bondarchuk8n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S3Neborak2Bondarchuk8n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S4Neborak2Bondarchuk3n = 5Bondarchuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakBondarchukN − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match27.637.3−9.7per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakBondarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 854 vs 200 / 36035%55.6%299 / 854 vs 200 / 360Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukNeborak 3.40/Bondarchuk 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.3%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 09:35D. Neborak—511841O. Bondarchuk—11911113
LAug 12 · 16:30D. Neborak—8101171O. Bondarchuk—11129113
LAug 8 · 11:20D. Neborak—77100O. Bondarchuk—1111123
LAug 8 · 10:20D. Neborak—116251O. Bondarchuk—81111113
LAug 7 · 16:30D. Neborak—7470O. Bondarchuk—1111113
LJul 30 · 11:33D. Neborak—7650O. Bondarchuk—1111113
LJul 30 · 10:20D. Neborak—610111192O. Bondarchuk—111296113
LJul 29 · 13:30D. Neborak—9450O. Bondarchuk—1111113
WJul 17 · 10:20D. Neborak—11119123O. Bondarchuk—3611101
LJul 17 · 06:50D. Neborak—21170O. Bondarchuk—1113113
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
O. Bondarchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113WAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580WAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071WAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:35O. Bondarchuk1.3611911113D. Neborak3.00511841WAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661WAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 06:05O. Bondarchuk1.201111113O. Belskyi4.332950WAug 12 · 17:34O. Ivchuk3.50114861O. Bondarchuk1.2891111113
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