TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467048
Played Aug 21Finished
Alexander Tkachenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3111012118611––
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tkachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlexander Tkachenko above · Oleksandr Bondarchuk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Alexander Tkachenko at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tkachenko 23–17 Oleksandr Bondarchuk Oleksandr Bondarchuk has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-17 in 40
Tkachenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1714 vs Bondarchuk 1956
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 242 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 40% vs Bondarchuk 100%
Bondarchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 50% vs Bondarchuk 100%
Bondarchuk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko -1 · Bondarchuk +5
Bondarchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarchuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.80 / Bondarchuk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkachenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12467048
Tkachenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Bondarchuk1.91
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 32 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkachenko7wins
AwayBondarchuk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko100%6 of 6
AwayBondarchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko6Bondarchuk4n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S2Tkachenko7Bondarchuk3n = 10Tkachenko took 7 of 10
S3Tkachenko6Bondarchuk4n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S4Tkachenko3Bondarchuk1n = 4Tkachenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkachenkoBondarchukT − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.032.6+3.4per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoBondarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 298 vs 200 / 36048%55.6%143 / 298 vs 200 / 360Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.80/Bondarchuk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 07:20A. Tkachenko—1113113O. Bondarchuk—81140
WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko—1113113O. Bondarchuk—81140
LAug 7 · 13:30A. Tkachenko—4980O. Bondarchuk—1111113
WJul 4 · 12:30A. Tkachenko—11119113O. Bondarchuk—651171
LJun 27 · 11:18A. Tkachenko—81160O. Bondarchuk—1113113
WJun 27 · 08:50A. Tkachenko—511711113O. Bondarchuk—11811892
WMay 9 · 08:50A. Tkachenko—1113113O. Bondarchuk—91190
WMay 8 · 16:50A. Tkachenko—1311113O. Bondarchuk—11490
WMay 1 · 07:05A. Tkachenko—11911113O. Bondarchuk—811881
LApr 30 · 15:10A. Tkachenko—101111582O. Bondarchuk—127711113
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 21 · 16:30A. Tkachenko1.57591111112D. Neborak2.25111159133LAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133WAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 8 · 09:20D. Neborak2.251111143A. Tkachenko1.5759120LAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko1.808480I. Hermakivskyi1.911111113WAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk1.9181140A. Tkachenko1.801113113LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko1.8071060O. Ivchuk1.911112113WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140WAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak2.25951131A. Tkachenko1.5711119113WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko1.911111113I. Hermakivskyi1.809980
O. Bondarchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580WAug 21 · 13:30D. Neborak3.4018111172O. Bondarchuk1.30111179113WAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071WAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:35O. Bondarchuk1.3611911113D. Neborak3.00511841WAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661WAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481LAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk1.9181140A. Tkachenko1.801113113LAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140
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