TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467160
Played Aug 21Finished
Alexander Tkachenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11891111131113––
Oleksandr Ivchuk
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ivchuk to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Tkachenko above · Oleksandr Ivchuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 87 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Oleksandr Ivchuk at 54.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tkachenko 5–2 Oleksandr Ivchuk Oleksandr Ivchuk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ivchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Tkachenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1724 vs Ivchuk 1772
Ivchuk
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 40% vs Ivchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 50% vs Ivchuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +1 · Ivchuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Ivchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 2.20 / Ivchuk 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Ivchuk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12467160
Tkachenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 33 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back26% 8 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Ivchuk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 157 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it93% 78 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it84% 116 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTkachenko5wins
AwayIvchuk2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderTkachenko leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko100%4 of 4
AwayIvchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko4Ivchuk3n = 7Tkachenko took 4 of 7
S2Tkachenko3Ivchuk4n = 7Ivchuk took 4 of 7
S3Tkachenko5Ivchuk2n = 7Tkachenko took 5 of 7
S4Tkachenko1Ivchuk4n = 5Ivchuk took 4 of 5
S5Tkachenko3Ivchuk0n = 3Tkachenko took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricTkachenkoIvchukT − IBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match39.337.1+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoIvchukBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 297 vs 379 / 55248.2%68.7%143 / 297 vs 379 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchukTkachenko 2.20/Ivchuk 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Ivchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ivchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko—71060O. Ivchuk—1112113
LAug 7 · 12:30A. Tkachenko—9711101O. Ivchuk—11117123
WMay 1 · 10:05A. Tkachenko—11511113O. Ivchuk—811941
WApr 25 · 10:20A. Tkachenko—114128113O. Ivchuk—611101152
WApr 17 · 11:40A. Tkachenko—1111113O. Ivchuk—8580
WApr 2 · 18:50A. Tkachenko—711125113O. Ivchuk—119101162
WMar 28 · 13:50A. Tkachenko—1111109113O. Ivchuk—76121162
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 21 · 16:30A. Tkachenko1.57591111112D. Neborak2.25111159133LAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113WAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 8 · 09:20D. Neborak2.251111143A. Tkachenko1.5759120LAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko1.808480I. Hermakivskyi1.911111113WAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk1.9181140A. Tkachenko1.801113113LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko1.8071060O. Ivchuk1.911112113WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140WAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak2.25951131A. Tkachenko1.5711119113WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko1.911111113I. Hermakivskyi1.809980
O. Ivchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:44O. Ivchuk1.83211119133D. Neborak1.83118711112LAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113WAug 21 · 15:00D. Neborak1.7311411762O. Ivchuk2.00911811113LAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071LAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:05O. Ivchuk1.8371111113O. Belskyi1.83118551WAug 13 · 08:05D. Neborak1.8311311572O. Ivchuk1.83811811113LAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113WAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko1.8071060O. Ivchuk1.911112113
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