TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415165
Played Aug 13Finished
Illia Hermakivskyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511411––––
Oleksandr Ivchuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ivchuk to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Hermakivskyi above · Oleksandr Ivchuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 47 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Oleksandr Ivchuk at 56.7%
47 points played in total.
H2H Illia Hermakivskyi 4–5 Oleksandr Ivchuk Illia Hermakivskyi has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ivchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hermakivskyi 1694 vs Ivchuk 1770
Ivchuk
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hermakivskyi 20% vs Ivchuk 60%
Ivchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hermakivskyi 40% vs Ivchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hermakivskyi -2 · Ivchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Ivchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hermakivskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHermakivskyi 2.00 / Ivchuk 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Ivchuk)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12415165
Hermakivskyi2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 9 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Ivchuk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 160 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it93% 79 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it84% 117 of 140
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHermakivskyi4wins
AwayIvchuk5wins
2 of 9 to a deciderIvchuk leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHermakivskyi66.7%4 of 6
AwayIvchuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hermakivskyi6Ivchuk3n = 9Hermakivskyi took 6 of 9
S2Hermakivskyi3Ivchuk6n = 9Ivchuk took 6 of 9
S3Hermakivskyi5Ivchuk4n = 9Hermakivskyi took 5 of 9
S4Hermakivskyi2Ivchuk4n = 6Ivchuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricHermakivskyiIvchukH − IBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match38.438.6−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHermakivskyiIvchukBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 39 vs 390 / 56148.7%69.5%19 / 39 vs 390 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchukHermakivskyi 2.00/Ivchuk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Ivchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ivchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 12 · 12:30I. Hermakivskyi—811881O. Ivchuk—11311113
WAug 8 · 10:53I. Hermakivskyi—1111113O. Ivchuk—6770
WAug 8 · 09:50I. Hermakivskyi—111511113O. Ivchuk—617571
LAug 7 · 16:58I. Hermakivskyi—118611102O. Ivchuk—911119123
WAug 7 · 16:00I. Hermakivskyi—1311113O. Ivchuk—11970
WJul 30 · 11:04I. Hermakivskyi—157115113O. Ivchuk—131161192
LJul 30 · 08:20I. Hermakivskyi—116851O. Ivchuk—81111113
LJul 29 · 16:00I. Hermakivskyi—14311121O. Ivchuk—16115143
LJul 21 · 16:30I. Hermakivskyi—135120O. Ivchuk—1511143
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540LAug 12 · 17:04I. Hermakivskyi1.83111111982D. Neborak1.83413511113LAug 12 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk1.611111815113I. Hermakivskyi2.2066111742
O. Ivchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:44O. Ivchuk1.83211119133D. Neborak1.83118711112LAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113WAug 21 · 15:00D. Neborak1.7311411762O. Ivchuk2.00911811113WAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133LAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071LAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:05O. Ivchuk1.8371111113O. Belskyi1.83118551WAug 13 · 08:05D. Neborak1.8311311572O. Ivchuk1.83811811113LAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481LAug 12 · 17:34O. Ivchuk3.50114861O. Bondarchuk1.2891111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.