TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467062
Played Aug 21Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111195111161012
Illia Hermakivskyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeDmytro Neborak to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Illia Hermakivskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Dmytro Neborak at 60.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 7–2 Illia Hermakivskyi Illia Hermakivskyi has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Neborak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Neborak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1616 vs Hermakivskyi 1652
Hermakivskyi
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 20% vs Hermakivskyi 0%
Neborak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 20% vs Hermakivskyi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -1 · Hermakivskyi -5
Hermakivskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Neborak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hermakivskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 1.61 / Hermakivskyi 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Neborak)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467062
Neborak1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 34 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it80% 24 of 30
Hermakivskyi2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 9 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeNeborak7wins
AwayHermakivskyi2wins
4 of 9 to a deciderNeborak leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak100%4 of 4
AwayHermakivskyi40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak4Hermakivskyi5n = 9Hermakivskyi took 5 of 9
S2Neborak8Hermakivskyi1n = 9Neborak took 8 of 9
S3Neborak4Hermakivskyi5n = 9Hermakivskyi took 5 of 9
S4Neborak5Hermakivskyi1n = 6Neborak took 5 of 6
S5Neborak3Hermakivskyi1n = 4Neborak took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricNeborakHermakivskyiN − HBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match39.134.8+4.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakHermakivskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 855 vs 20 / 4435%45.5%299 / 855 vs 20 / 44Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeborakNeborak 1.61/Hermakivskyi 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.7%
Neborak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hermakivskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak—811511102I. Hermakivskyi—119116123
WAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak—1111113I. Hermakivskyi—1540
WAug 12 · 17:04D. Neborak—413511113I. Hermakivskyi—111111982
WAug 12 · 13:30D. Neborak—511411113I. Hermakivskyi—11811082
WAug 8 · 06:50D. Neborak—1311113I. Hermakivskyi—11880
LAug 7 · 13:00D. Neborak—921161I. Hermakivskyi—11118113
WJul 30 · 06:50D. Neborak—11116113I. Hermakivskyi—781141
WJul 29 · 15:00D. Neborak—1112113I. Hermakivskyi—81030
WJul 4 · 12:00D. Neborak—1011911113I. Hermakivskyi—12911872
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540LAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:04I. Hermakivskyi1.83111111982D. Neborak1.83413511113LAug 12 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk1.611111815113I. Hermakivskyi2.2066111742
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