TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12406955
Played Aug 12Finished
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161168111517114
Illia Hermakivskyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Bondarchuk above · Illia Hermakivskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 15-17
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 100 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 64.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bondarchuk 5–1 Illia Hermakivskyi Illia Hermakivskyi has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Bondarchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Bondarchuk
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarchuk 1892 vs Hermakivskyi 1717
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarchuk 100% vs Hermakivskyi 60%
Bondarchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarchuk 80% vs Hermakivskyi 50%
Bondarchuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarchuk +5 · Hermakivskyi +1
Bondarchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Bondarchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hermakivskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarchuk 1.61 / Hermakivskyi 2.20
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Bondarchuk)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12406955
Bondarchuk1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 66 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it83% 50 of 60
Hermakivskyi2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 9 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBondarchuk5wins
AwayHermakivskyi1wins
5 of 6 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 5–1, and 5 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarchuk100%4 of 4
AwayHermakivskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarchuk4Hermakivskyi2n = 6Bondarchuk took 4 of 6
S2Bondarchuk4Hermakivskyi2n = 6Bondarchuk took 4 of 6
S3Bondarchuk3Hermakivskyi3n = 6split evenly
S4Bondarchuk2Hermakivskyi3n = 5Hermakivskyi took 3 of 5
S5Bondarchuk4Hermakivskyi1n = 5Bondarchuk took 4 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home467%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBondarchukHermakivskyiB − HBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match44.842.7+2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarchukHermakivskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 363 vs 19 / 3754.3%51.4%197 / 363 vs 19 / 37Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukBondarchuk 1.61/Hermakivskyi 2.20
Hit
What we said
68.7%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 8 · 05:50O. Bondarchuk—117314113I. Hermakivskyi—711111282
WAug 7 · 12:00O. Bondarchuk—119117113I. Hermakivskyi—41191162
LJul 30 · 05:50O. Bondarchuk—91241152I. Hermakivskyi—1110113113
WJul 29 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk—911118123I. Hermakivskyi—118611102
WJul 4 · 17:39O. Bondarchuk—111196113I. Hermakivskyi—99111192
WJul 4 · 14:28O. Bondarchuk—1211113I. Hermakivskyi—10690
O. Bondarchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113WAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580WAug 21 · 13:30D. Neborak3.4018111172O. Bondarchuk1.30111179113WAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071WAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:35O. Bondarchuk1.3611911113D. Neborak3.00511841WAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661WAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 06:05O. Bondarchuk1.201111113O. Belskyi4.332950
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540LAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:04I. Hermakivskyi1.83111111982D. Neborak1.83413511113
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