TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467028
Played Aug 21Finished
Oleksandr Ivchuk
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811811––––
Illia Hermakivskyi
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ivchuk to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Ivchuk above · Illia Hermakivskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Ivchuk at 70.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ivchuk 6–5 Illia Hermakivskyi Illia Hermakivskyi has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Ivchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivchuk 1776 vs Hermakivskyi 1651
Ivchuk
Wrong
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivchuk 60% vs Hermakivskyi 20%
Ivchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivchuk 60% vs Hermakivskyi 20%
Ivchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivchuk +2 · Hermakivskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Ivchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hermakivskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvchuk 1.50 / Hermakivskyi 2.50
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Ivchuk)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467028
Ivchuk1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 157 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it93% 78 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it84% 116 of 139
Hermakivskyi2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 9 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvchuk5wins
AwayHermakivskyi5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvchuk100%3 of 3
AwayHermakivskyi71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivchuk3Hermakivskyi7n = 10Hermakivskyi took 7 of 10
S2Ivchuk6Hermakivskyi4n = 10Ivchuk took 6 of 10
S3Ivchuk4Hermakivskyi6n = 10Hermakivskyi took 6 of 10
S4Ivchuk4Hermakivskyi2n = 6Ivchuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvchukHermakivskyiI − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.436.3+0.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvchukHermakivskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 556 vs 21 / 4868.7%43.8%382 / 556 vs 21 / 48Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchukIvchuk 1.50/Hermakivskyi 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Ivchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hermakivskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk—8880I. Hermakivskyi—1111113
WAug 13 · 05:35O. Ivchuk—1111113I. Hermakivskyi—5540
WAug 12 · 12:30O. Ivchuk—11311113I. Hermakivskyi—811881
LAug 8 · 10:53O. Ivchuk—6770I. Hermakivskyi—1111113
LAug 8 · 09:50O. Ivchuk—617571I. Hermakivskyi—111511113
WAug 7 · 16:58O. Ivchuk—911119123I. Hermakivskyi—118611102
LAug 7 · 16:00O. Ivchuk—11970I. Hermakivskyi—1311113
LJul 30 · 11:04O. Ivchuk—131161192I. Hermakivskyi—157115113
WJul 30 · 08:20O. Ivchuk—81111113I. Hermakivskyi—116851
WJul 29 · 16:00O. Ivchuk—16115143I. Hermakivskyi—14311121
O. Ivchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:44O. Ivchuk1.83211119133D. Neborak1.83118711112WAug 21 · 15:00D. Neborak1.7311411762O. Ivchuk2.00911811113WAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133LAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071LAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:05O. Ivchuk1.8371111113O. Belskyi1.83118551WAug 13 · 08:05D. Neborak1.8311311572O. Ivchuk1.83811811113LAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:34O. Ivchuk3.50114861O. Bondarchuk1.2891111113
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540LAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:04I. Hermakivskyi1.83111111982D. Neborak1.83413511113LAug 12 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk1.611111815113I. Hermakivskyi2.2066111742
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