TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467083
Played Aug 21Finished
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115118––––
Illia Hermakivskyi
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 75.5% is still 75.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
75.5%
75.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Bondarchuk above · Illia Hermakivskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 75.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bondarchuk 9–1 Illia Hermakivskyi Illia Hermakivskyi has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Bondarchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-1 in 10
Bondarchuk
Correct
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarchuk 1969 vs Hermakivskyi 1651
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 319 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarchuk 100% vs Hermakivskyi 20%
Bondarchuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarchuk 100% vs Hermakivskyi 20%
Bondarchuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarchuk +5 · Hermakivskyi -1
Bondarchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Bondarchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hermakivskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarchuk 1.36 / Hermakivskyi 3.00
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Bondarchuk)+15.8pp
Setka Cup · #12467083
Bondarchuk1.36
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 75 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it85% 55 of 65
Hermakivskyi3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 9 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarchuk9wins
AwayHermakivskyi1wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 9–1, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarchuk100%6 of 6
AwayHermakivskyi25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarchuk6Hermakivskyi4n = 10Bondarchuk took 6 of 10
S2Bondarchuk8Hermakivskyi2n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S3Bondarchuk6Hermakivskyi4n = 10Bondarchuk took 6 of 10
S4Bondarchuk4Hermakivskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Bondarchuk5Hermakivskyi1n = 6Bondarchuk took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarchukHermakivskyiB − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.138.5+5.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarchukHermakivskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 361 vs 21 / 4855.7%43.8%201 / 361 vs 21 / 48Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukBondarchuk 1.36/Hermakivskyi 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 17:13O. Bondarchuk—61114113I. Hermakivskyi—1151241
WAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk—1111113I. Hermakivskyi—7580
WAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk—71211113I. Hermakivskyi—1110661
WAug 12 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk—1111815113I. Hermakivskyi—66111742
WAug 8 · 05:50O. Bondarchuk—117314113I. Hermakivskyi—711111282
WAug 7 · 12:00O. Bondarchuk—119117113I. Hermakivskyi—41191162
LJul 30 · 05:50O. Bondarchuk—91241152I. Hermakivskyi—1110113113
WJul 29 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk—911118123I. Hermakivskyi—118611102
WJul 4 · 17:39O. Bondarchuk—111196113I. Hermakivskyi—99111192
WJul 4 · 14:28O. Bondarchuk—1211113I. Hermakivskyi—10690
O. Bondarchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113WAug 21 · 13:30D. Neborak3.4018111172O. Bondarchuk1.30111179113WAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071WAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:35O. Bondarchuk1.3611911113D. Neborak3.00511841WAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661WAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 06:05O. Bondarchuk1.201111113O. Belskyi4.332950WAug 12 · 17:34O. Ivchuk3.50114861O. Bondarchuk1.2891111113
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540LAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:04I. Hermakivskyi1.83111111982D. Neborak1.83413511113LAug 12 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk1.611111815113I. Hermakivskyi2.2066111742
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.