TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415067
Played Aug 13Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
111115114––––
Illia Hermakivskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Neborak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Illia Hermakivskyi below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 43 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Dmytro Neborak at 54.0%
43 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 7–1 Illia Hermakivskyi Illia Hermakivskyi has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Neborak
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1700 vs Hermakivskyi 1640
Neborak
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 60% vs Hermakivskyi 20%
Neborak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 50% vs Hermakivskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +2 · Hermakivskyi -3
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Neborak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hermakivskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.00 / Hermakivskyi 1.73
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Neborak)+8.5pp
Setka Cup · #12415067
Neborak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 120 of 342
Down 0–1, comes back17% 36 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 134
Hermakivskyi1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 10 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeNeborak7wins
AwayHermakivskyi1wins
3 of 8 to a deciderNeborak leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak100%4 of 4
AwayHermakivskyi25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak4Hermakivskyi4n = 8split evenly
S2Neborak7Hermakivskyi1n = 8Neborak took 7 of 8
S3Neborak4Hermakivskyi4n = 8split evenly
S4Neborak4Hermakivskyi1n = 5Neborak took 4 of 5
S5Neborak3Hermakivskyi0n = 3Neborak took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricNeborakHermakivskyiN − HBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match38.433.0+5.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakHermakivskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 858 vs 19 / 4335.4%44.2%304 / 858 vs 19 / 43Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeborakNeborak 2.00/Hermakivskyi 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Neborak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak—1111113I. Hermakivskyi—1540
WAug 12 · 17:04D. Neborak—413511113I. Hermakivskyi—111111982
WAug 12 · 13:30D. Neborak—511411113I. Hermakivskyi—11811082
WAug 8 · 06:50D. Neborak—1311113I. Hermakivskyi—11880
LAug 7 · 13:00D. Neborak—921161I. Hermakivskyi—11118113
WJul 30 · 06:50D. Neborak—11116113I. Hermakivskyi—781141
WJul 29 · 15:00D. Neborak—1112113I. Hermakivskyi—81030
WJul 4 · 12:00D. Neborak—1011911113I. Hermakivskyi—12911872
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:04I. Hermakivskyi1.83111111982D. Neborak1.83413511113LAug 12 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk1.611111815113I. Hermakivskyi2.2066111742
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