TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12414391
Played Aug 12Finished
Illia Hermakivskyi
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141113115911811
Dmytro Neborak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingIllia Hermakivskyi above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11
94 points played in total.
H2H Illia Hermakivskyi 1–5 Dmytro Neborak Illia Hermakivskyi has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hermakivskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHermakivskyi 1.83 / Neborak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hermakivskyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12414391
Hermakivskyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Neborak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHermakivskyi1wins
AwayNeborak5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderNeborak leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHermakivskyi33.3%1 of 3
AwayNeborak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hermakivskyi3Neborak3n = 6split evenly
S2Hermakivskyi1Neborak5n = 6Neborak took 5 of 6
S3Hermakivskyi3Neborak3n = 6split evenly
S4Hermakivskyi1Neborak3n = 4Neborak took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricHermakivskyiNeborakH − NBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match34.038.3−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHermakivskyiNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 38 vs 301 / 85650%35.2%19 / 38 vs 301 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HermakivskyiHermakivskyi 1.83/Neborak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hermakivskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 12 · 13:30I. Hermakivskyi—11811082D. Neborak—511411113
LAug 8 · 06:50I. Hermakivskyi—11880D. Neborak—1311113
WAug 7 · 13:00I. Hermakivskyi—11118113D. Neborak—921161
LJul 30 · 06:50I. Hermakivskyi—781141D. Neborak—11116113
LJul 29 · 15:00I. Hermakivskyi—81030D. Neborak—1112113
LJul 4 · 12:00I. Hermakivskyi—12911872D. Neborak—1011911113
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540LAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk1.611111815113I. Hermakivskyi2.2066111742
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123WAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540
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