TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415072
Played Aug 13Finished
Illia Hermakivskyi
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118115711611511
Oleksandr Belskyi
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:11 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeIllia Hermakivskyi to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIllia Hermakivskyi above · Oleksandr Belskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 86 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Illia Hermakivskyi at 60.8%
86 points played in total.
H2H Illia Hermakivskyi 1–1 Oleksandr Belskyi Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hermakivskyi 1640 vs Belskyi 1513
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hermakivskyi 20% vs Belskyi 0%
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hermakivskyi 40% vs Belskyi 0%
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hermakivskyi -4 · Belskyi -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Hermakivskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Belskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHermakivskyi 1.53 / Belskyi 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Hermakivskyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12415072
Hermakivskyi1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 10 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Belskyi2.38
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog21% won 9 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back8% 2 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHermakivskyi1wins
AwayBelskyi1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHermakivskyiBelskyiH − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match42.039.5+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHermakivskyiBelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 43 vs 46 / 11644.2%39.7%19 / 43 vs 46 / 116Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HermakivskyiHermakivskyi 1.53/Belskyi 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Hermakivskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Belskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi—11117652O. Belskyi—851111113
WAug 12 · 14:30I. Hermakivskyi—11814113O. Belskyi—2111281
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540LAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:04I. Hermakivskyi1.83111111982D. Neborak1.83413511113LAug 12 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk1.611111815113I. Hermakivskyi2.2066111742
O. Belskyi10
LAug 13 · 10:19O. Belskyi1.57111110382D. Neborak2.25761211113LAug 13 · 09:05O. Ivchuk1.8371111113O. Belskyi1.83118551LAug 13 · 06:05O. Bondarchuk1.201111113O. Belskyi4.332950LAug 13 · 05:05D. Neborak1.6111116113O. Belskyi2.20491121LAug 12 · 16:00O. Ivchuk2.001111113O. Belskyi1.736950LAug 12 · 14:30I. Hermakivskyi1.7311814113O. Belskyi2.002111281LAug 12 · 13:00O. Bondarchuk1.221111113O. Belskyi4.008280LAug 12 · 12:00D. Neborak1.6711911113O. Belskyi2.10911761LJun 20 · 12:20O. Belskyi4.0011711552O. Bondarchuk1.22711311113LJun 20 · 10:20M. Zavada1.281316113O. Belskyi3.50111430
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