TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415174
Played Aug 13Finished
Oleksandr Ivchuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118115115––
Oleksandr Belskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Belskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Ivchuk above · Oleksandr Belskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Belskyi at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ivchuk 2–6 Oleksandr Belskyi Oleksandr Ivchuk has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:51What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Belskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Belskyi
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivchuk 1782 vs Belskyi 1524
Ivchuk
Correct
both rated, 258 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivchuk 60% vs Belskyi 20%
Ivchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivchuk 50% vs Belskyi 10%
Ivchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivchuk +1 · Belskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Belskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Belskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvchuk 1.83 / Belskyi 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Belskyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12415174
Ivchuk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Belskyi1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeIvchuk2wins
AwayBelskyi6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderBelskyi leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvchukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBelskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivchuk2Belskyi6n = 8Belskyi took 6 of 8
S2Ivchuk3Belskyi5n = 8Belskyi took 5 of 8
S3Ivchuk5Belskyi3n = 8Ivchuk took 5 of 8
S4Ivchuk0Belskyi5n = 5Belskyi took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricIvchukBelskyiI − BBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match32.537.5−5.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvchukBelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime390 / 562 vs 46 / 11469.4%40.4%390 / 562 vs 46 / 114Avg sets wonper match2.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BelskyiIvchuk 1.83/Belskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Belskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ivchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 12 · 16:00O. Ivchuk—1111113O. Belskyi—6950
LMay 16 · 08:20O. Ivchuk—6101161O. Belskyi—11124113
WMay 1 · 11:05O. Ivchuk—711114133O. Belskyi—116911112
LApr 17 · 15:10O. Ivchuk—11711752O. Belskyi—611611113
LJan 14 · 13:20O. Ivchuk—5111091O. Belskyi—11812113
LJan 13 · 16:20O. Ivchuk—81030O. Belskyi—1112113
LSep 30 · 20:50O. Ivchuk—9940O. Belskyi—1111113
LMay 22 · 12:10O. Ivchuk—751161O. Belskyi—11117113
O. Ivchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:44O. Ivchuk1.83211119133D. Neborak1.83118711112LAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113WAug 21 · 15:00D. Neborak1.7311411762O. Ivchuk2.00911811113WAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133LAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071LAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 08:05D. Neborak1.8311311572O. Ivchuk1.83811811113LAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:34O. Ivchuk3.50114861O. Bondarchuk1.2891111113
O. Belskyi10
LAug 13 · 10:19O. Belskyi1.57111110382D. Neborak2.25761211113WAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 06:05O. Bondarchuk1.201111113O. Belskyi4.332950LAug 13 · 05:05D. Neborak1.6111116113O. Belskyi2.20491121LAug 12 · 16:00O. Ivchuk2.001111113O. Belskyi1.736950LAug 12 · 14:30I. Hermakivskyi1.7311814113O. Belskyi2.002111281LAug 12 · 13:00O. Bondarchuk1.221111113O. Belskyi4.008280LAug 12 · 12:00D. Neborak1.6711911113O. Belskyi2.10911761LJun 20 · 12:20O. Belskyi4.0011711552O. Bondarchuk1.22711311113LJun 20 · 10:20M. Zavada1.281316113O. Belskyi3.50111430
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