TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415088
Played Aug 13Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118311118511711
Oleksandr Ivchuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ivchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Oleksandr Ivchuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 86 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Ivchuk at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 24–12 Oleksandr Ivchuk Oleksandr Ivchuk has won 12 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ivchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-12 in 36
Neborak
Wrong
gap of 12 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1708 vs Ivchuk 1773
Ivchuk
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 60% vs Ivchuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 60% vs Ivchuk 40%
Neborak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak +3 · Ivchuk -1
Neborak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ivchuk)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 1.83 / Ivchuk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ivchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12415088
Neborak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Ivchuk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak6wins
AwayIvchuk4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNeborak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak80%4 of 5
AwayIvchuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak5Ivchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Neborak7Ivchuk3n = 10Neborak took 7 of 10
S3Neborak5Ivchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Neborak4Ivchuk3n = 7Neborak took 4 of 7
S5Neborak2Ivchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakIvchukN − IBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.036.8+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakIvchukBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 859 vs 389 / 56135.4%69.3%304 / 859 vs 389 / 561Avg sets wonper match1.72.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchukNeborak 1.83/Ivchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ivchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ivchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 15:00D. Neborak—811116102O. Ivchuk—118911123
LAug 8 · 07:50D. Neborak—12912672O. Ivchuk—10111011113
LAug 7 · 14:00D. Neborak—1311731O. Ivchuk—15311113
WJul 30 · 09:20D. Neborak—1111123O. Ivchuk—99100
WJul 29 · 12:00D. Neborak—41111113O. Ivchuk—115921
LJun 5 · 18:20D. Neborak—9960O. Ivchuk—1111113
WMay 23 · 08:50D. Neborak—1111113O. Ivchuk—7440
WMay 22 · 16:50D. Neborak—1110811113O. Ivchuk—91211582
WMay 16 · 12:20D. Neborak—811511113O. Ivchuk—11611762
WMay 1 · 07:35D. Neborak—11116113O. Ivchuk—791181
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
O. Ivchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:44O. Ivchuk1.83211119133D. Neborak1.83118711112LAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113WAug 21 · 15:00D. Neborak1.7311411762O. Ivchuk2.00911811113WAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133LAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071LAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:05O. Ivchuk1.8371111113O. Belskyi1.83118551LAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:34O. Ivchuk3.50114861O. Bondarchuk1.2891111113
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