TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467012
Played Aug 21Finished
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1136111210117––
Oleksandr Ivchuk
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 90.8% is still 90.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
90.8%
90.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Bondarchuk above · Oleksandr Ivchuk below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 90.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bondarchuk 26–1 Oleksandr Ivchuk Oleksandr Ivchuk has won 1 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:15What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Bondarchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-1 in 27
Bondarchuk
Correct
gap of 25 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarchuk 1941 vs Ivchuk 1779
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarchuk 100% vs Ivchuk 60%
Bondarchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarchuk 100% vs Ivchuk 60%
Bondarchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarchuk +5 · Ivchuk -1
Bondarchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Bondarchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarchuk 1.25 / Ivchuk 3.75
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Bondarchuk)+15.8pp
Setka Cup · #12467012
Bondarchuk1.25
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 75 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it85% 55 of 65
Ivchuk3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 17 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarchuk10wins
AwayIvchuk0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarchuk100%4 of 4
AwayIvchuk0%0 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarchuk4Ivchuk6n = 10Ivchuk took 6 of 10
S2Bondarchuk7Ivchuk3n = 10Bondarchuk took 7 of 10
S3Bondarchuk8Ivchuk2n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S4Bondarchuk9Ivchuk0n = 9Bondarchuk took 9 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarchukIvchukB − IBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.231.3+9.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarchukIvchukBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 361 vs 379 / 55155.7%68.8%201 / 361 vs 379 / 551Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukBondarchuk 1.25/Ivchuk 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.8%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 10:44O. Bondarchuk—61111113O. Ivchuk—115851
WAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk—11911113O. Ivchuk—811481
WAug 12 · 17:34O. Bondarchuk—91111113O. Ivchuk—114861
WAug 12 · 14:00O. Bondarchuk—1211711113O. Ivchuk—14811642
WAug 8 · 08:50O. Bondarchuk—1111123O. Ivchuk—56100
WAug 7 · 15:00O. Bondarchuk—371111113O. Ivchuk—11116572
WJul 30 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk—61111113O. Ivchuk—119691
WJul 29 · 17:08O. Bondarchuk—11115113O. Ivchuk—391191
WJul 29 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk—91111113O. Ivchuk—116391
WJun 5 · 17:20O. Bondarchuk—11811113O. Ivchuk—711421
O. Bondarchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113WAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580WAug 21 · 13:30D. Neborak3.4018111172O. Bondarchuk1.30111179113WAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:35O. Bondarchuk1.3611911113D. Neborak3.00511841WAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661WAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 06:05O. Bondarchuk1.201111113O. Belskyi4.332950WAug 12 · 17:34O. Ivchuk3.50114861O. Bondarchuk1.2891111113
O. Ivchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:44O. Ivchuk1.83211119133D. Neborak1.83118711112LAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113WAug 21 · 15:00D. Neborak1.7311411762O. Ivchuk2.00911811113WAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133LAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:05O. Ivchuk1.8371111113O. Belskyi1.83118551WAug 13 · 08:05D. Neborak1.8311311572O. Ivchuk1.83811811113LAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 12 · 17:34O. Ivchuk3.50114861O. Bondarchuk1.2891111113
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