TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12374740
Played Aug 7Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911511119311––
Alexander Tkachenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tkachenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Alexander Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 70 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Alexander Tkachenko at 58.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 27–28 Alexander Tkachenko Dmytro Neborak has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:45What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-28 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1674 vs Tkachenko 1710
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 40% vs Tkachenko 20%
Neborak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 50% vs Tkachenko 30%
Neborak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -2 · Tkachenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.25 / Tkachenko 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Tkachenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12374740
Neborak2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 337
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 131
Tkachenko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 30 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak4wins
AwayTkachenko6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak100%4 of 4
AwayTkachenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S2Neborak4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S3Neborak4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S4Neborak3Tkachenko5n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakTkachenkoN − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.937.5−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime303 / 863 vs 140 / 29135.1%48.1%303 / 863 vs 140 / 291Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoNeborak 2.25/Tkachenko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak—951131A. Tkachenko—11119113
WJul 4 · 15:00D. Neborak—11117113A. Tkachenko—691181
LJun 27 · 07:20D. Neborak—9111181A. Tkachenko—11613113
WMay 9 · 05:50D. Neborak—121011123A. Tkachenko—10127101
LMay 8 · 21:53D. Neborak—2380A. Tkachenko—1111113
LMay 8 · 19:50D. Neborak—581191A. Tkachenko—11114113
WMay 1 · 06:05D. Neborak—11116113A. Tkachenko—181171
WApr 30 · 17:10D. Neborak—137116113A. Tkachenko—111181172
LApr 25 · 07:20D. Neborak—8117111A. Tkachenko—11611133
LApr 24 · 21:20D. Neborak—4490A. Tkachenko—1111113
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 21 · 16:30A. Tkachenko1.57591111112D. Neborak2.25111159133LAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113LAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133WAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 8 · 09:20D. Neborak2.251111143A. Tkachenko1.5759120LAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko1.808480I. Hermakivskyi1.911111113WAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk1.9181140A. Tkachenko1.801113113LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko1.8071060O. Ivchuk1.911112113WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko1.911111113I. Hermakivskyi1.809980
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