TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378881
Played Aug 8Finished
Alexander Tkachenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012611––––
Oleksandr Ivchuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tkachenko to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlexander Tkachenko above · Oleksandr Ivchuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Alexander Tkachenko at 55.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tkachenko 5–2 Oleksandr Ivchuk Oleksandr Ivchuk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:11What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Tkachenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1714 vs Ivchuk 1760
Ivchuk
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 60% vs Ivchuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 40% vs Ivchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +3 · Ivchuk +1
Tkachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.80 / Ivchuk 1.91
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Tkachenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12378881
Tkachenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 33 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Ivchuk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 13 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTkachenko5wins
AwayIvchuk2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderTkachenko leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko100%4 of 4
AwayIvchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko4Ivchuk3n = 7Tkachenko took 4 of 7
S2Tkachenko3Ivchuk4n = 7Ivchuk took 4 of 7
S3Tkachenko5Ivchuk2n = 7Tkachenko took 5 of 7
S4Tkachenko1Ivchuk4n = 5Ivchuk took 4 of 5
S5Tkachenko3Ivchuk0n = 3Tkachenko took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricTkachenkoIvchukT − IBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match39.337.1+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoIvchukBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 296 vs 392 / 56148%69.9%142 / 296 vs 392 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.02.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.80/Ivchuk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ivchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko—71060O. Ivchuk—1112113
LAug 7 · 12:30A. Tkachenko—9711101O. Ivchuk—11117123
WMay 1 · 10:05A. Tkachenko—11511113O. Ivchuk—811941
WApr 25 · 10:20A. Tkachenko—114128113O. Ivchuk—611101152
WApr 17 · 11:40A. Tkachenko—1111113O. Ivchuk—8580
WApr 2 · 18:50A. Tkachenko—711125113O. Ivchuk—119101162
WMar 28 · 13:50A. Tkachenko—1111109113O. Ivchuk—76121162
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 21 · 16:30A. Tkachenko1.57591111112D. Neborak2.25111159133LAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113LAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133WAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 8 · 09:20D. Neborak2.251111143A. Tkachenko1.5759120LAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko1.808480I. Hermakivskyi1.911111113WAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk1.9181140A. Tkachenko1.801113113WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140WAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak2.25951131A. Tkachenko1.5711119113WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko1.911111113I. Hermakivskyi1.809980
O. Ivchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:44O. Ivchuk1.83211119133D. Neborak1.83118711112LAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113WAug 21 · 15:00D. Neborak1.7311411762O. Ivchuk2.00911811113WAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133LAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071LAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:05O. Ivchuk1.8371111113O. Belskyi1.83118551WAug 13 · 08:05D. Neborak1.8311311572O. Ivchuk1.83811811113LAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113
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