TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378658
Played Aug 8Finished
Alexander Tkachenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411811––––
Illia Hermakivskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIllia Hermakivskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Tkachenko above · Illia Hermakivskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Illia Hermakivskyi at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tkachenko 1–2 Illia Hermakivskyi Alexander Tkachenko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:10What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1731 vs Hermakivskyi 1696
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 80% vs Hermakivskyi 20%
Tkachenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 40% vs Hermakivskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +1 · Hermakivskyi -3
Hermakivskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hermakivskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.80 / Hermakivskyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkachenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12378658
Tkachenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 32 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Hermakivskyi1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeTkachenko1wins
AwayHermakivskyi2wins
Hermakivskyi leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko1Hermakivskyi2n = 3Hermakivskyi took 2 of 3
S2Tkachenko1Hermakivskyi2n = 3Hermakivskyi took 2 of 3
S3Tkachenko1Hermakivskyi2n = 3Hermakivskyi took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricTkachenkoHermakivskyiT − HBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match24.730.7−6.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoHermakivskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 295 vs 16 / 3248.1%50%142 / 295 vs 16 / 32Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.80/Hermakivskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hermakivskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko—8480I. Hermakivskyi—1111113
WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko—1111113I. Hermakivskyi—9980
LJul 4 · 16:00A. Tkachenko—9570I. Hermakivskyi—1111113
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 21 · 16:30A. Tkachenko1.57591111112D. Neborak2.25111159133LAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113LAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133WAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 8 · 09:20D. Neborak2.251111143A. Tkachenko1.5759120WAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk1.9181140A. Tkachenko1.801113113LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko1.8071060O. Ivchuk1.911112113WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140WAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak2.25951131A. Tkachenko1.5711119113WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko1.911111113I. Hermakivskyi1.809980
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540LAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113LAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko1.911111113I. Hermakivskyi1.809980
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