TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378579
Played Aug 8Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151191412––––
Alexander Tkachenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:47 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tkachenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Alexander Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 62 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Alexander Tkachenko at 58.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 27–28 Alexander Tkachenko Dmytro Neborak has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-28 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1665 vs Tkachenko 1731
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 20% vs Tkachenko 60%
Tkachenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 40% vs Tkachenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -1 · Tkachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 2.25 / Tkachenko 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Tkachenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12378579
Neborak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 117 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back16% 34 of 208
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 133
Tkachenko1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 32 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak4wins
AwayTkachenko6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak100%4 of 4
AwayTkachenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S2Neborak4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S3Neborak4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S4Neborak3Tkachenko5n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakTkachenkoN − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.937.5−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 860 vs 142 / 29535%48.1%301 / 860 vs 142 / 295Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoNeborak 2.25/Tkachenko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak—951131A. Tkachenko—11119113
WJul 4 · 15:00D. Neborak—11117113A. Tkachenko—691181
LJun 27 · 07:20D. Neborak—9111181A. Tkachenko—11613113
WMay 9 · 05:50D. Neborak—121011123A. Tkachenko—10127101
LMay 8 · 21:53D. Neborak—2380A. Tkachenko—1111113
LMay 8 · 19:50D. Neborak—581191A. Tkachenko—11114113
WMay 1 · 06:05D. Neborak—11116113A. Tkachenko—181171
WApr 30 · 17:10D. Neborak—137116113A. Tkachenko—111181172
LApr 25 · 07:20D. Neborak—8117111A. Tkachenko—11611133
LApr 24 · 21:20D. Neborak—4490A. Tkachenko—1111113
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191LSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103WSep 5 · 14:25R. Reznychenko4.0093140D. Neborak1.221111163
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 21 · 16:30A. Tkachenko1.57591111112D. Neborak2.25111159133LAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113LAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133WAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko1.808480I. Hermakivskyi1.911111113WAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk1.9181140A. Tkachenko1.801113113LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko1.8071060O. Ivchuk1.911112113WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140WAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak2.25951131A. Tkachenko1.5711119113WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko1.911111113I. Hermakivskyi1.809980
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