TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12466920
Played Aug 21Finished
Alexander Tkachenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5119111151191113
Dmytro Neborak
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tkachenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlexander Tkachenko above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 96 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Alexander Tkachenko at 58.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tkachenko 28–28 Dmytro Neborak Dead even across their 56 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-28 in 56
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1682 vs Neborak 1628
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 20% vs Neborak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 50% vs Neborak 20%
Tkachenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko -2 · Neborak -4
Neborak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.57 / Neborak 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Tkachenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12466920
Tkachenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Neborak2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 115 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkachenko5wins
AwayNeborak5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko100%5 of 5
AwayNeborak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko5Neborak5n = 10split evenly
S2Tkachenko5Neborak5n = 10split evenly
S3Tkachenko5Neborak5n = 10split evenly
S4Tkachenko5Neborak3n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkachenkoNeborakT − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.835.8+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 300 vs 300 / 85547.7%35.1%143 / 300 vs 300 / 855Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.57/Neborak 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 09:20A. Tkachenko—59120D. Neborak—1111143
WAug 7 · 15:30A. Tkachenko—11119113D. Neborak—951131
LJul 4 · 15:00A. Tkachenko—691181D. Neborak—11117113
WJun 27 · 07:20A. Tkachenko—11613113D. Neborak—9111181
LMay 9 · 05:50A. Tkachenko—10127101D. Neborak—121011123
WMay 8 · 21:53A. Tkachenko—1111113D. Neborak—2380
WMay 8 · 19:50A. Tkachenko—11114113D. Neborak—581191
LMay 1 · 06:05A. Tkachenko—181171D. Neborak—11116113
LApr 30 · 17:10A. Tkachenko—111181172D. Neborak—137116113
WApr 25 · 07:20A. Tkachenko—11611133D. Neborak—8117111
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113LAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133WAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 8 · 09:20D. Neborak2.251111143A. Tkachenko1.5759120LAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko1.808480I. Hermakivskyi1.911111113WAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk1.9181140A. Tkachenko1.801113113LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko1.8071060O. Ivchuk1.911112113WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140WAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak2.25951131A. Tkachenko1.5711119113WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko1.911111113I. Hermakivskyi1.809980
D. Neborak10
LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641WSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080WSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103LSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191WAug 8 · 09:20D. Neborak2.251111143A. Tkachenko1.5759120LAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak2.25951131A. Tkachenko1.5711119113
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