TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12379040
Played Aug 8Finished
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111113411––––
Alexander Tkachenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Bondarchuk above · Alexander Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 58 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bondarchuk 17–23 Alexander Tkachenko Oleksandr Bondarchuk has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-23 in 40
Tkachenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarchuk 1881 vs Tkachenko 1714
Bondarchuk
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarchuk 80% vs Tkachenko 60%
Bondarchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarchuk 90% vs Tkachenko 40%
Bondarchuk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarchuk +1 · Tkachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarchuk 1.91 / Tkachenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tkachenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12379040
Bondarchuk1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 33 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Tkachenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 33 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarchuk3wins
AwayTkachenko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkachenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarchuk75%3 of 4
AwayTkachenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarchuk4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S2Bondarchuk3Tkachenko7n = 10Tkachenko took 7 of 10
S3Bondarchuk4Tkachenko6n = 10Tkachenko took 6 of 10
S4Bondarchuk1Tkachenko3n = 4Tkachenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarchukTkachenkoB − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.636.0−3.4per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarchukTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 361 vs 142 / 29654%48%195 / 361 vs 142 / 296Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoBondarchuk 1.91/Tkachenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk—81140A. Tkachenko—1113113
LAug 7 · 17:29O. Bondarchuk—81140A. Tkachenko—1113113
WAug 7 · 13:30O. Bondarchuk—1111113A. Tkachenko—4980
LJul 4 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk—651171A. Tkachenko—11119113
WJun 27 · 11:18O. Bondarchuk—1113113A. Tkachenko—81160
LJun 27 · 08:50O. Bondarchuk—11811892A. Tkachenko—511711113
LMay 9 · 08:50O. Bondarchuk—91190A. Tkachenko—1113113
LMay 8 · 16:50O. Bondarchuk—11490A. Tkachenko—1311113
LMay 1 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk—811881A. Tkachenko—11911113
WApr 30 · 15:10O. Bondarchuk—127711113A. Tkachenko—101111582
O. Bondarchuk10
WAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113WAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580WAug 21 · 13:30D. Neborak3.4018111172O. Bondarchuk1.30111179113WAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk1.2511612113O. Ivchuk3.753111071WAug 13 · 10:44O. Ivchuk3.75115851O. Bondarchuk1.2561111113WAug 13 · 09:35O. Bondarchuk1.3611911113D. Neborak3.00511841WAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661WAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk1.2811911113O. Ivchuk3.50811481WAug 13 · 06:05O. Bondarchuk1.201111113O. Belskyi4.332950
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 21 · 16:30A. Tkachenko1.57591111112D. Neborak2.25111159133LAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113LAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133WAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 8 · 09:20D. Neborak2.251111143A. Tkachenko1.5759120LAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko1.808480I. Hermakivskyi1.911111113LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko1.8071060O. Ivchuk1.911112113WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140WAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak2.25951131A. Tkachenko1.5711119113WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko1.911111113I. Hermakivskyi1.809980
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