TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12374851
Played Aug 7Finished
Alexander Tkachenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119118––––
Illia Hermakivskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeIllia Hermakivskyi to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlexander Tkachenko above · Illia Hermakivskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Illia Hermakivskyi at 60.8%
59 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tkachenko 1–1 Illia Hermakivskyi Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1695 vs Hermakivskyi 1713
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 0% vs Hermakivskyi 60%
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 30% vs Hermakivskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko -5 · Hermakivskyi +1
Tkachenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hermakivskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.91 / Hermakivskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hermakivskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12374851
Tkachenko1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 42 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Hermakivskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite80% won 8 of 10
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTkachenko1wins
AwayHermakivskyi1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricTkachenkoHermakivskyiT − HBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match27.029.5−2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoHermakivskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 290 vs 14 / 2747.9%51.9%139 / 290 vs 14 / 27Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HermakivskyiTkachenko 1.91/Hermakivskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hermakivskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 7 · 14:30A. Tkachenko—1111113I. Hermakivskyi—9980
LJul 4 · 16:00A. Tkachenko—9570I. Hermakivskyi—1111113
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 21 · 16:30A. Tkachenko1.57591111112D. Neborak2.25111159133LAug 21 · 15:30A. Tkachenko1.803101161O. Bondarchuk1.9111128113LAug 21 · 14:00A. Tkachenko2.2011911111O. Ivchuk1.6181113133WAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121LAug 8 · 09:20D. Neborak2.251111143A. Tkachenko1.5759120LAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko1.808480I. Hermakivskyi1.911111113WAug 8 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk1.9181140A. Tkachenko1.801113113LAug 8 · 06:20A. Tkachenko1.8071060O. Ivchuk1.911112113WAug 7 · 17:29A. Tkachenko1.831113113O. Bondarchuk1.8381140WAug 7 · 15:30D. Neborak2.25951131A. Tkachenko1.5711119113
I. Hermakivskyi10
LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661LAug 13 · 07:35I. Hermakivskyi1.5311117652O. Belskyi2.38851111113LAug 13 · 06:35D. Neborak2.001111113I. Hermakivskyi1.731540LAug 13 · 05:35I. Hermakivskyi2.005540O. Ivchuk1.731111113WAug 8 · 08:20A. Tkachenko1.808480I. Hermakivskyi1.911111113
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