TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12444972
Played Aug 17Finished
Roman Hryhoriev
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111171311115––
Yurii Zvolynskyi
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeRoman Hryhoriev to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Hryhoriev above · Yurii Zvolynskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 78 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Roman Hryhoriev at 73.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Roman Hryhoriev 11–1 Yurii Zvolynskyi Yurii Zvolynskyi has won 1 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hryhoriev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-1 in 12
Hryhoriev
Correct
gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hryhoriev 1336 vs Zvolynskyi 1333
Hryhoriev
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hryhoriev 20% vs Zvolynskyi 40%
Zvolynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hryhoriev 20% vs Zvolynskyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hryhoriev -3 · Zvolynskyi +1
Hryhoriev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Hryhoriev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hryhoriev form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHryhoriev 1.44 / Zvolynskyi 2.63
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Hryhoriev)+8.8pp
Setka Cup · #12444972
Hryhoriev1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 17 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Zvolynskyi2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 42 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHryhoriev9wins
AwayZvolynskyi1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHryhoriev leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHryhoriev100%5 of 5
AwayZvolynskyi25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hryhoriev5Zvolynskyi4n = 9Hryhoriev took 5 of 9
S2Hryhoriev6Zvolynskyi3n = 9Hryhoriev took 6 of 9
S3Hryhoriev6Zvolynskyi3n = 9Hryhoriev took 6 of 9
S4Hryhoriev5Zvolynskyi1n = 6Hryhoriev took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHryhorievZvolynskyiH − ZBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.432.7+5.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHryhorievZvolynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 284 vs 302 / 56950%53.1%142 / 284 vs 302 / 569Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HryhorievHryhoriev 1.44/Zvolynskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Hryhoriev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hryhoriev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LApr 30 · 15:00R. Hryhoriev—89100Y. Zvolynskyi—1111123
WApr 7 · 13:00R. Hryhoriev—511113113Y. Zvolynskyi—11251192
WDec 8 · 17:00R. Hryhoriev—61111123Y. Zvolynskyi—1165111
WNov 2 · 16:30R. Hryhoriev—1111113Y. Zvolynskyi—5590
WOct 27 · 14:30R. Hryhoriev—61211113Y. Zvolynskyi—1110691
WOct 14 · 13:30R. Hryhoriev—11911113Y. Zvolynskyi—411781
WSep 14 · 12:30R. Hryhoriev—116911143Y. Zvolynskyi—711112122
WAug 21 · 15:00R. Hryhoriev—1111123Y. Zvolynskyi—98100
WJul 28 · 07:00R. Hryhoriev—11115113Y. Zvolynskyi—971171
R. Hryhoriev10
LSep 3 · 17:03R. Hryhoriev2.63951121S. Sideltsev1.4411118113LSep 3 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.83111113113R. Hryhoriev1.831391191WSep 3 · 14:30O. Levytskyi3.5091261192R. Hryhoriev1.281110119113WSep 3 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov2.10117451R. Hryhoriev1.6731111113WSep 3 · 12:00N. Priadko1.91148551R. Hryhoriev1.80121111113LSep 1 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.501113113R. Hryhoriev2.5071170WSep 1 · 14:30R. Hryhoriev2.381111113N. Priadko1.535580LSep 1 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.801111183R. Hryhoriev1.9139160LSep 1 · 12:30R. Hryhoriev4.336930P. Kolesnik1.201111113WAug 17 · 17:08R. Hryhoriev1.911211116123I. Dubinin1.80148811102
Y. Zvolynskyi10
LSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.081111113V. Khyzhnyak7.005970LSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin4.33811134102Y. Zvolynskyi1.201191111123WSep 4 · 05:30S. Honcharenko2.384660Y. Zvolynskyi1.531111113LSep 3 · 10:35S. Honcharenko2.004121111113Y. Zvolynskyi1.73111071362WSep 3 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.501111110113S. Honcharenko2.5091181262WSep 3 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.141111113V. Hyriavyi5.005660WSep 3 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.251111113V. Matviichuk3.759990WSep 3 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.1071211113S. Zherykhin6.501110741
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