TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066990
Played Sep 3Finished
Yurii Zvolynskyi
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191111181012116
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeYurii Zvolynskyi to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Zvolynskyi above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Yurii Zvolynskyi at 60.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Zvolynskyi 51–31 Serhii Honcharenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 31 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:47What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Zvolynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-31 in 82
Zvolynskyi
Correct
gap of 20 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zvolynskyi 1315 vs Honcharenko 1342
Honcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zvolynskyi 80% vs Honcharenko 100%
Honcharenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zvolynskyi 60% vs Honcharenko 90%
Honcharenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zvolynskyi +4 · Honcharenko +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Zvolynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZvolynskyi 1.50 / Honcharenko 2.50
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Zvolynskyi)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13066990
Zvolynskyi1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 86 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it88% 70 of 80
Honcharenko2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 69 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZvolynskyi7wins
AwayHoncharenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZvolynskyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZvolynskyi100%6 of 6
AwayHoncharenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zvolynskyi6Honcharenko4n = 10Zvolynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Zvolynskyi5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Zvolynskyi8Honcharenko2n = 10Zvolynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Zvolynskyi2Honcharenko5n = 7Honcharenko took 5 of 7
S5Zvolynskyi3Honcharenko0n = 3Zvolynskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZvolynskyiHoncharenkoZ − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.935.8+4.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZvolynskyiHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 577 vs 419 / 81553%51.4%306 / 577 vs 419 / 815Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZvolynskyiZvolynskyi 1.50/Honcharenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Zvolynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zvolynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi—1111143S. Honcharenko—49120
WAug 27 · 16:30Y. Zvolynskyi—119115113S. Honcharenko—61151162
LAug 25 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi—6311101S. Honcharenko—11117123
LAug 23 · 16:00Y. Zvolynskyi—9211131S. Honcharenko—11118153
WAug 10 · 15:00Y. Zvolynskyi—81111123S. Honcharenko—1128101
WAug 5 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi—131179113S. Honcharenko—117111192
WJul 30 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi—1711113S. Honcharenko—15960
LJul 12 · 08:00Y. Zvolynskyi—1371171S. Honcharenko—15117113
WJul 5 · 17:03Y. Zvolynskyi—116911113S. Honcharenko—71111232
WJul 5 · 16:00Y. Zvolynskyi—1111113S. Honcharenko—9650
Y. Zvolynskyi10
LSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.081111113V. Khyzhnyak7.005970LSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin4.33811134102Y. Zvolynskyi1.201191111123WSep 4 · 05:30S. Honcharenko2.384660Y. Zvolynskyi1.531111113LSep 3 · 10:35S. Honcharenko2.004121111113Y. Zvolynskyi1.73111071362WSep 3 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.141111113V. Hyriavyi5.005660WSep 3 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.251111113V. Matviichuk3.759990WSep 3 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.1071211113S. Zherykhin6.501110741WSep 2 · 09:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.751111113M. Pohorilyi1.409880
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192LSep 4 · 05:30S. Honcharenko2.384660Y. Zvolynskyi1.531111113WSep 3 · 10:35S. Honcharenko2.004121111113Y. Zvolynskyi1.73111071362
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