TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072981
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Badanin
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111913114111012
Yurii Zvolynskyi
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 81.8% is still 81.8%
Graded at full timeYurii Zvolynskyi to win
81.8%
81.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Badanin above · Yurii Zvolynskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 100 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Yurii Zvolynskyi at 81.8%
100 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Badanin 3–20 Yurii Zvolynskyi Oleksandr Badanin has won 3 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Zvolynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-20 in 23
Zvolynskyi
Correct
gap of 17 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badanin 1202 vs Zvolynskyi 1315
Zvolynskyi
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badanin 60% vs Zvolynskyi 80%
Zvolynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badanin 60% vs Zvolynskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Badanin +3 · Zvolynskyi +1
Badanin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Zvolynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badanin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadanin 4.33 / Zvolynskyi 1.20
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Zvolynskyi)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13072981
Badanin4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 21 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Zvolynskyi1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 91 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it88% 74 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBadanin2wins
AwayZvolynskyi8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZvolynskyi leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBadanin66.7%2 of 3
AwayZvolynskyi100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badanin3Zvolynskyi7n = 10Zvolynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Badanin4Zvolynskyi6n = 10Zvolynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Badanin1Zvolynskyi9n = 10Zvolynskyi took 9 of 10
S4Badanin2Zvolynskyi3n = 5Zvolynskyi took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadaninZvolynskyiB − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match28.937.5−8.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadaninZvolynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 335 vs 310 / 58448.4%53.1%162 / 335 vs 310 / 584Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZvolynskyiBadanin 4.33/Zvolynskyi 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.8%
Zvolynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zvolynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin—811134102Y. Zvolynskyi—1191111123
LSep 1 · 05:30O. Badanin—4660Y. Zvolynskyi—1111113
WJun 17 · 08:30O. Badanin—111111113Y. Zvolynskyi—691331
LApr 24 · 10:28O. Badanin—1571071Y. Zvolynskyi—131112113
LApr 24 · 09:30O. Badanin—8690Y. Zvolynskyi—1111113
WApr 6 · 08:30O. Badanin—11114143Y. Zvolynskyi—8511121
LApr 1 · 07:30O. Badanin—4640Y. Zvolynskyi—1111113
LMar 13 · 06:00O. Badanin—8590Y. Zvolynskyi—1111113
LFeb 23 · 10:30O. Badanin—411861Y. Zvolynskyi—11911113
LOct 2 · 09:30O. Badanin—7900Y. Zvolynskyi—1111113
O. Badanin10
LSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110LSep 7 · 07:00V. Khyzhnyak3.7511111113O. Badanin1.25991181LSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171WSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123LSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:30O. Badanin1.57111125113S. Honcharenko2.2559111182WSep 4 · 06:00O. Badanin1.3311711113V. Khyzhnyak3.25411531WSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450WSep 1 · 09:00O. Badanin1.33121112113S. Zherykhin3.251091441LSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191
Y. Zvolynskyi10
LSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.081111113V. Khyzhnyak7.005970LSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 05:30S. Honcharenko2.384660Y. Zvolynskyi1.531111113LSep 3 · 10:35S. Honcharenko2.004121111113Y. Zvolynskyi1.73111071362WSep 3 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.501111110113S. Honcharenko2.5091181262WSep 3 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.141111113V. Hyriavyi5.005660WSep 3 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.251111113V. Matviichuk3.759990WSep 3 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.1071211113S. Zherykhin6.501110741WSep 2 · 09:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.751111113M. Pohorilyi1.409880
Upcoming Matches
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