TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054732
Played Sep 1Finished
Yurii Urezchenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118411119––
Oleksandr Badanin
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Badanin to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr Badanin at 56.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 23–26 Oleksandr Badanin Yurii Urezchenko has won 23 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:35What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Badanin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-26 in 49
Badanin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1113 vs Badanin 1183
Badanin
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 60% vs Badanin 40%
Urezchenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 60% vs Badanin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko -1 · Badanin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Badanin) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badanin form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 2.20 / Badanin 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Badanin)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13054732
Urezchenko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 40 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back14% 13 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Badanin1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 36 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko3wins
AwayBadanin7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBadanin leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenko60%3 of 5
AwayBadanin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko5Badanin5n = 10split evenly
S2Urezchenko5Badanin5n = 10split evenly
S3Urezchenko3Badanin7n = 10Badanin took 7 of 10
S4Urezchenko5Badanin4n = 9Urezchenko took 5 of 9
S5Urezchenko1Badanin4n = 5Badanin took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoBadaninU − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.242.2−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 472 vs 157 / 32744.3%48%209 / 472 vs 157 / 327Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadaninUrezchenko 2.20/Badanin 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Badanin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urezchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 2 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko—8540O. Badanin—1111113
LJun 28 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko—88111122O. Badanin—111189113
LJun 22 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—11861182O. Badanin—511117113
WJun 17 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko—111286113O. Badanin—910111172
LMay 29 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko—1191071O. Badanin—91112113
WApr 28 · 10:34Y. Urezchenko—11116113O. Badanin—881141
LApr 28 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko—71111562O. Badanin—118911113
WApr 14 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko—11611113O. Badanin—811891
LApr 14 · 07:00Y. Urezchenko—411741O. Badanin—11711113
LApr 3 · 09:00Y. Urezchenko—41181182O. Badanin—115118113
Y. Urezchenko10
WSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110WSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.611612113S. Zherykhin2.20141010LSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173LSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113LSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450LSep 1 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.616111111113Y. Urezchenko2.2011138662LSep 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko4.3367100Y. Zvolynskyi1.201111123
O. Badanin10
LSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110LSep 7 · 07:00V. Khyzhnyak3.7511111113O. Badanin1.25991181LSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171WSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123LSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:30O. Badanin1.57111125113S. Honcharenko2.2559111182LSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin4.33811134102Y. Zvolynskyi1.201191111123WSep 4 · 06:00O. Badanin1.3311711113V. Khyzhnyak3.25411531WSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450WSep 1 · 09:00O. Badanin1.33121112113S. Zherykhin3.251091441
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