TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13083978
Played Sep 6Finished
Yurii Urezchenko
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111711611––––
Ihor Sorochan
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeIhor Sorochan to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Ihor Sorochan below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 47 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Ihor Sorochan at 82.7%
47 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 3–14 Ihor Sorochan Yurii Urezchenko has won 3 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Sorochan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-14 in 17
Sorochan
Correct
gap of 11 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1077 vs Sorochan 1335
Sorochan
Correct
both rated, 258 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 20% vs Sorochan 60%
Sorochan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 40% vs Sorochan 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko -4 · Sorochan +1
Urezchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Sorochan) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sorochan form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 4.50 / Sorochan 1.17
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Sorochan)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13083978
Urezchenko4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 41 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back14% 13 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Sorochan1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 67 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko3wins
AwaySorochan7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSorochan leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySorochan66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko1Sorochan9n = 10Sorochan took 9 of 10
S2Urezchenko4Sorochan6n = 10Sorochan took 6 of 10
S3Urezchenko5Sorochan5n = 10split evenly
S4Urezchenko3Sorochan5n = 8Sorochan took 5 of 8
S5Urezchenko3Sorochan2n = 5Urezchenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoSorochanU − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match35.341.2−5.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoSorochanBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 468 vs 248 / 44144.2%56.2%207 / 468 vs 248 / 441Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SorochanUrezchenko 4.50/Sorochan 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.8%
Sorochan · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sorochan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 08:30Y. Urezchenko—91211572I. Sorochan—1110911113
LAug 9 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko—5411101I. Sorochan—11117123
LMay 4 · 11:03Y. Urezchenko—8980I. Sorochan—1111113
WMay 4 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko—511511113I. Sorochan—11911762
LApr 3 · 07:30Y. Urezchenko—711881I. Sorochan—11711113
LJan 25 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko—941171I. Sorochan—11114113
LNov 17 · 07:30Y. Urezchenko—3690I. Sorochan—1111113
WOct 6 · 13:30Y. Urezchenko—761111113I. Sorochan—11115952
LAug 6 · 10:00Y. Urezchenko—11451182I. Sorochan—711117113
WAug 6 · 07:30Y. Urezchenko—711113113I. Sorochan—11791162
Y. Urezchenko10
WSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.611612113S. Zherykhin2.20141010LSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173LSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450LSep 1 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.616111111113Y. Urezchenko2.2011138662WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191LSep 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko4.3367100Y. Zvolynskyi1.201111123WSep 1 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.615111111113S. Zherykhin2.2011761362
I. Sorochan10
LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030LSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672LSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113WSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov3.756990I. Sorochan1.251111113WSep 5 · 12:30A. Lysyi4.007860I. Sorochan1.221111113LAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan1.83715111092I. Dubinin1.831113512113
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