TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084793
Played Sep 6Finished
Ihor Sorochan
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 0
Set by set
112121033––––
Valentyn Kurliuk
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:48 and never touched — 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeIhor Sorochan to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Sorochan above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 3-3
Point 41 set 3, 3-3 — our read held Ihor Sorochan at 74.7%
41 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Sorochan 10–0 Valentyn Kurliuk Valentyn Kurliuk has won 0 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:48What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Sorochan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-0 in 10
Sorochan
Correct
gap of 10 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sorochan 1347 vs Kurliuk 1313
Sorochan
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sorochan 40% vs Kurliuk 80%
Kurliuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sorochan 40% vs Kurliuk 70%
Kurliuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sorochan -1 · Kurliuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Sorochan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSorochan 1.28 / Kurliuk 3.50
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Sorochan)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084793
Sorochan1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 67 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Kurliuk3.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog13% won 5 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSorochan10wins
AwayKurliuk0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSorochan leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSorochan100%9 of 9
AwayKurliukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sorochan9Kurliuk1n = 10Sorochan took 9 of 10
S2Sorochan7Kurliuk3n = 10Sorochan took 7 of 10
S3Sorochan8Kurliuk2n = 10Sorochan took 8 of 10
S4Sorochan5Kurliuk1n = 6Sorochan took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSorochanKurliukS − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.029.7+9.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSorochanKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 440 vs 145 / 28556.1%50.9%247 / 440 vs 145 / 285Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SorochanSorochan 1.28/Kurliuk 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Sorochan · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–0
Sorochan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 10:08I. Sorochan—61111113V. Kurliuk—117891
WAug 12 · 06:30I. Sorochan—1111113V. Kurliuk—4760
WJul 19 · 06:30I. Sorochan—1211123V. Kurliuk—109100
WJun 2 · 13:30I. Sorochan—117118123V. Kurliuk—611511102
WApr 20 · 06:30I. Sorochan—1311153V. Kurliuk—115130
WApr 2 · 06:30I. Sorochan—111110113V. Kurliuk—371271
WOct 19 · 14:00I. Sorochan—13811113V. Kurliuk—1111671
WOct 12 · 12:30I. Sorochan—1111113V. Kurliuk—5760
WSep 21 · 15:30I. Sorochan—11113103V. Kurliuk—451161
WJul 21 · 05:30I. Sorochan—11811113V. Kurliuk—811891
I. Sorochan10
LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113LSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672LSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113WSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov3.756990I. Sorochan1.251111113WSep 5 · 12:30A. Lysyi4.007860I. Sorochan1.221111113LAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan1.83715111092I. Dubinin1.831113512113
V. Kurliuk10
LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192WSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 06:30V. Kurliuk1.731111113S. Honcharenko2.009680WSep 4 · 05:00V. Kurliuk1.3071111133V. Khyzhnyak3.401157111LAug 12 · 10:08I. Sorochan1.2861111113V. Kurliuk3.50117891
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