TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072945
Played Sep 4Finished
Valentyn Kurliuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116118––––
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValentyn Kurliuk above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Kurliuk 15–13 Serhii Honcharenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:41What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kurliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-13 in 28
Kurliuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurliuk 1308 vs Honcharenko 1299
Kurliuk
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurliuk 40% vs Honcharenko 60%
Honcharenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurliuk 20% vs Honcharenko 70%
Honcharenko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurliuk +1 · Honcharenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurliuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurliuk 1.73 / Honcharenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurliuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13072945
Kurliuk1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 54 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Honcharenko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 71 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurliuk6wins
AwayHoncharenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurliuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurliuk80%4 of 5
AwayHoncharenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurliuk5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurliuk6Honcharenko4n = 10Kurliuk took 6 of 10
S3Kurliuk6Honcharenko4n = 10Kurliuk took 6 of 10
S4Kurliuk2Honcharenko4n = 6Honcharenko took 4 of 6
S5Kurliuk2Honcharenko1n = 3Kurliuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurliukHoncharenkoK − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.535.8+0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurliukHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 283 vs 425 / 82750.9%51.4%144 / 283 vs 425 / 827Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurliukKurliuk 1.73/Honcharenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Kurliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 06:30V. Kurliuk—1111113S. Honcharenko—9680
LAug 5 · 07:30V. Kurliuk—8590S. Honcharenko—1111113
WJul 30 · 05:00V. Kurliuk—111255123S. Honcharenko—6101111102
WJun 30 · 08:00V. Kurliuk—1113113S. Honcharenko—61180
LJun 26 · 06:00V. Kurliuk—5730S. Honcharenko—1111113
LJun 14 · 05:00V. Kurliuk—13911992S. Honcharenko—1111211113
WJun 13 · 12:30V. Kurliuk—1611115113S. Honcharenko—18481152
WApr 23 · 09:30V. Kurliuk—61111113S. Honcharenko—118971
LApr 20 · 09:30V. Kurliuk—711661S. Honcharenko—11211113
WApr 16 · 09:00V. Kurliuk—11811113S. Honcharenko—911771
V. Kurliuk10
LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030WSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 05:00V. Kurliuk1.3071111133V. Khyzhnyak3.401157111LAug 12 · 10:08I. Sorochan1.2861111113V. Kurliuk3.50117891
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691
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