TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079169
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
81111811699––
Vasyl Matviichuk
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-9
Point 73 set 4, 9-9 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 60.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 95–65 Vasyl Matviichuk Vasyl Matviichuk has won 65 of their 160 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
95-65 in 160
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 30 in 160, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1280 vs Matviichuk 1118
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 20% vs Matviichuk 40%
Matviichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 50% vs Matviichuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko -2 · Matviichuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Honcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.53 / Matviichuk 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Honcharenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079169
Honcharenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 97 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it85% 78 of 92
Matviichuk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 33 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back7% 5 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko9wins
AwayMatviichuk1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%9 of 9
AwayMatviichukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko9Matviichuk1n = 10Honcharenko took 9 of 10
S2Honcharenko7Matviichuk3n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S3Honcharenko4Matviichuk6n = 10Matviichuk took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko5Matviichuk2n = 7Honcharenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoMatviichukH − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.930.6+8.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 822 vs 291 / 61451.2%47.4%421 / 822 vs 291 / 614Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.53/Matviichuk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 08:00S. Honcharenko—1111113V. Matviichuk—5640
WAug 31 · 10:28S. Honcharenko—11117123V. Matviichuk—8711101
WAug 31 · 06:00S. Honcharenko—11911133V. Matviichuk—5113111
LAug 30 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—7950V. Matviichuk—1111113
WAug 27 · 12:00S. Honcharenko—11116113V. Matviichuk—861171
WAug 25 · 05:30S. Honcharenko—11511113V. Matviichuk—711461
WAug 24 · 07:00S. Honcharenko—1111910113V. Matviichuk—48111272
WAug 19 · 08:00S. Honcharenko—11116113V. Matviichuk—571131
WAug 14 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—1112113V. Matviichuk—81090
WAug 7 · 10:29S. Honcharenko—111187113V. Matviichuk—84111132
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871LSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123
V. Matviichuk10
WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk1.6111411133S. Zherykhin2.209119111WSep 6 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi3.00911931V. Matviichuk1.3611711113WSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:00A. Danylov1.731171171V. Matviichuk2.0013115113LSep 6 · 05:00S. Zherykhin3.0011911113V. Matviichuk1.36711831LSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.731111103V. Matviichuk2.007420WSep 3 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.53111111113V. Hyriavyi2.38138871WSep 3 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.571111123S. Zherykhin2.2598100
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.