TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079281
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115411118107––
Anatoliy Lysyi
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Anatoliy Lysyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-7
Point 67 set 4, 10-7 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 68.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 38–15 Anatoliy Lysyi Anatoliy Lysyi has won 15 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-15 in 53
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 23 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1299 vs Lysyi 1118
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 40% vs Lysyi 20%
Honcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 50% vs Lysyi 30%
Honcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +1 · Lysyi -3
Lysyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Honcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.44 / Lysyi 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Honcharenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079281
Honcharenko1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 97 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it85% 78 of 92
Lysyi2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 33 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko6wins
AwayLysyi4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%4 of 4
AwayLysyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko4Lysyi6n = 10Lysyi took 6 of 10
S2Honcharenko6Lysyi4n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Honcharenko6Lysyi4n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko5Lysyi5n = 10split evenly
S5Honcharenko3Lysyi2n = 5Honcharenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoLysyiH − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.540.2+3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoLysyiBasisWin rate · lifetime425 / 827 vs 178 / 42051.4%42.4%425 / 827 vs 178 / 420Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.44/Lysyi 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 07:30S. Honcharenko—11711113A. Lysyi—811231
WAug 30 · 07:30S. Honcharenko—51311113A. Lysyi—1111871
WAug 24 · 08:30S. Honcharenko—14911113A. Lysyi—1211521
WJul 26 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—911115113A. Lysyi—11981142
LJun 22 · 08:30S. Honcharenko—61181182A. Lysyi—116117113
WJun 14 · 07:30S. Honcharenko—119811113A. Lysyi—51111972
LJun 7 · 08:30S. Honcharenko—5148101A. Lysyi—111211123
LJun 1 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—10111061A. Lysyi—12912113
LMay 11 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—101112642A. Lysyi—1251011113
WMay 4 · 07:00S. Honcharenko—1191110113A. Lysyi—61191222
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691LSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123
A. Lysyi10
LSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171LSep 6 · 08:30A. Danylov2.25121182113A. Lysyi1.57108111182LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113LSep 6 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.3011115262V. Hyriavyi3.40951111113LSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063LSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581WSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 12:30A. Lysyi4.007860I. Sorochan1.221111113
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