TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084276
Played Sep 6Finished
Anton Danylov
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210118811211118
Anatoliy Lysyi
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeAnatoliy Lysyi to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnton Danylov above · Anatoliy Lysyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Anatoliy Lysyi at 60.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Anton Danylov 5–12 Anatoliy Lysyi Anton Danylov has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lysyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-12 in 17
Lysyi
Wrong
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danylov 1052 vs Lysyi 1080
Lysyi
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danylov 20% vs Lysyi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danylov 40% vs Lysyi 20%
Danylov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danylov -2 · Lysyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Lysyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanylov 2.25 / Lysyi 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Lysyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084276
Danylov2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 26 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Lysyi1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite73% won 59 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it80% 43 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanylov3wins
AwayLysyi7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLysyi leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanylov40%2 of 5
AwayLysyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danylov5Lysyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Danylov5Lysyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Danylov3Lysyi7n = 10Lysyi took 7 of 10
S4Danylov2Lysyi4n = 6Lysyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanylovLysyiD − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.936.4−2.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanylovLysyiBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 118 vs 179 / 42330.5%42.3%36 / 118 vs 179 / 423Avg sets wonper match1.51.8per matchAvg pointsper match33.235.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysyiDanylov 2.25/Lysyi 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Lysyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Danylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 14:30A. Danylov—1183101A. Lysyi—71111123
WAug 16 · 13:30A. Danylov—1111113A. Lysyi—9750
WAug 2 · 15:30A. Danylov—101114123A. Lysyi—12512101
WJul 4 · 10:29A. Danylov—1111113A. Lysyi—6780
LJul 4 · 08:30A. Danylov—9680A. Lysyi—1111113
LJun 27 · 07:30A. Danylov—11461192A. Lysyi—511118113
LJun 14 · 08:30A. Danylov—119100A. Lysyi—1311123
LJun 7 · 07:30A. Danylov—5118111A. Lysyi—11911133
LMay 23 · 07:30A. Danylov—119491A. Lysyi—91111113
LMay 1 · 12:30A. Danylov—7111131A. Lysyi—11613113
A. Danylov10
WSep 6 · 09:58V. Hyriavyi1.5031191192A. Danylov2.50117114113LSep 6 · 09:30A. Danylov1.6710116101S. Zherykhin2.1012511123LSep 6 · 07:00A. Danylov2.25581241V. Hyriavyi1.57111110113LSep 6 · 06:00A. Danylov1.731171171V. Matviichuk2.0013115113WAug 29 · 17:35A. Danylov1.506111112113V. Yarovyi2.5011871432LAug 29 · 16:00O. Levytskyi1.73121111103A. Danylov2.001013981LAug 29 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.7371111123A. Danylov2.001183101WAug 29 · 13:00V. Yarovyi2.50711781A. Danylov1.5011311113WAug 29 · 12:00S. Zherykhin1.67161151A. Danylov2.1011119113LAug 16 · 17:30A. Danylov3.752111061M. Zavoloka1.2511712113
A. Lysyi10
LSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113LSep 6 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.3011115262V. Hyriavyi3.40951111113LSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063LSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581WSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WAug 29 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.7371111123A. Danylov2.001183101
Upcoming Matches
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A. Lysyi
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