TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088979
Played Sep 7Finished
Anatoliy Lysyi
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119911117––
Oleksandr Badanin
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Badanin to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnatoliy Lysyi above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Badanin at 67.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Anatoliy Lysyi 9–21 Oleksandr Badanin Anatoliy Lysyi has won 9 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Badanin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-21 in 30
Badanin
Wrong
gap of 12 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysyi 1069 vs Badanin 1202
Badanin
Wrong
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysyi 20% vs Badanin 60%
Badanin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysyi 20% vs Badanin 50%
Badanin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysyi -2 · Badanin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Badanin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badanin form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysyi 2.75 / Badanin 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Badanin)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13088979
Lysyi2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 34 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back11% 8 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Badanin1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 39 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysyi2wins
AwayBadanin8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBadanin leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysyi40%2 of 5
AwayBadanin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysyi5Badanin5n = 10split evenly
S2Lysyi3Badanin7n = 10Badanin took 7 of 10
S3Lysyi3Badanin7n = 10Badanin took 7 of 10
S4Lysyi1Badanin4n = 5Badanin took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysyiBadaninL − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match28.434.8−6.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysyiBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 424 vs 162 / 33542.2%48.4%179 / 424 vs 162 / 335Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadaninLysyi 2.75/Badanin 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Badanin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 22 · 10:28A. Lysyi—751191O. Badanin—11119113
WJun 22 · 06:30A. Lysyi—1111123O. Badanin—18100
LJun 15 · 06:30A. Lysyi—115651O. Badanin—81111113
LApr 24 · 05:00A. Lysyi—9440O. Badanin—1111113
WApr 10 · 10:34A. Lysyi—1111113O. Badanin—7620
LApr 10 · 08:30A. Lysyi—711101192O. Badanin—119128113
LMar 27 · 10:30A. Lysyi—8140O. Badanin—1111113
LMar 24 · 09:30A. Lysyi—8370O. Badanin—1111113
LMar 20 · 07:30A. Lysyi—117471O. Badanin—71111113
LFeb 19 · 07:30A. Lysyi—118861O. Badanin—81111113
A. Lysyi10
LSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112LSep 6 · 08:30A. Danylov2.25121182113A. Lysyi1.57108111182LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113LSep 6 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.3011115262V. Hyriavyi3.40951111113LSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063LSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581WSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871LSep 5 · 12:30A. Lysyi4.007860I. Sorochan1.221111113
O. Badanin10
WSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123LSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:30O. Badanin1.57111125113S. Honcharenko2.2559111182LSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin4.33811134102Y. Zvolynskyi1.201191111123WSep 4 · 06:00O. Badanin1.3311711113V. Khyzhnyak3.25411531WSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450WSep 1 · 09:00O. Badanin1.33121112113S. Zherykhin3.251091441LSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191LSep 1 · 07:00S. Honcharenko2.751111113O. Badanin1.407880LSep 1 · 05:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.251111113O. Badanin3.754660
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