TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079230
Played Sep 5Finished
Anatoliy Lysyi
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811611––––
Ihor Sorochan
Away
1.22
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:32 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeIhor Sorochan to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatoliy Lysyi above · Ihor Sorochan below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Ihor Sorochan at 79.4%
54 points played in total.
H2H Anatoliy Lysyi 13–36 Ihor Sorochan Anatoliy Lysyi has won 13 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:32What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Sorochan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-36 in 49
Sorochan
Correct
gap of 23 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysyi 1108 vs Sorochan 1350
Sorochan
Correct
both rated, 241 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysyi 20% vs Sorochan 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysyi 30% vs Sorochan 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysyi -2 · Sorochan -3
Sorochan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Sorochan) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sorochan form (20%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysyi 4.00 / Sorochan 1.22
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Sorochan)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13079230
Lysyi4.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 33 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Sorochan1.22
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 66 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysyi1wins
AwaySorochan9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSorochan leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysyi0%0 of 3
AwaySorochan85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysyi3Sorochan7n = 10Sorochan took 7 of 10
S2Lysyi4Sorochan6n = 10Sorochan took 6 of 10
S3Lysyi2Sorochan8n = 10Sorochan took 8 of 10
S4Lysyi3Sorochan5n = 8Sorochan took 5 of 8
S5Lysyi1Sorochan3n = 4Sorochan took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysyiSorochanL − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.542.5−9.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysyiSorochanBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 415 vs 255 / 44842.7%56.9%177 / 415 vs 255 / 448Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SorochanLysyi 4.00/Sorochan 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.9%
Sorochan · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sorochan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 12:30A. Lysyi—371181I. Sorochan—11115113
LJun 1 · 07:30A. Lysyi—11461162I. Sorochan—911119113
LMay 23 · 10:01A. Lysyi—11511592I. Sorochan—711911113
LMay 23 · 08:30A. Lysyi—1191051I. Sorochan—71112113
WMay 18 · 07:30A. Lysyi—611611123I. Sorochan—119116102
LMay 11 · 08:00A. Lysyi—6830I. Sorochan—1111113
LMay 4 · 05:30A. Lysyi—11860I. Sorochan—1311113
LApr 24 · 07:30A. Lysyi—812591I. Sorochan—111011113
LApr 20 · 05:30A. Lysyi—311461I. Sorochan—11911113
LMar 26 · 09:30A. Lysyi—61191192I. Sorochan—117116113
A. Lysyi10
WSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171LSep 6 · 08:30A. Danylov2.25121182113A. Lysyi1.57108111182LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113LSep 6 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.3011115262V. Hyriavyi3.40951111113LSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063LSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581WSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871LAug 31 · 08:30V. Matviichuk1.83111512113A. Lysyi1.836171021
I. Sorochan10
LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113WSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030LSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672LSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113WSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov3.756990I. Sorochan1.251111113LAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan1.83715111092I. Dubinin1.831113512113
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