TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049140
Played Aug 31Finished
Vasyl Matviichuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11615171210112––
Anatoliy Lysyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatoliy Lysyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Anatoliy Lysyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 84 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Anatoliy Lysyi at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 27–27 Anatoliy Lysyi Dead even across their 54 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:54What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lysyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-27 in 54
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1096 vs Lysyi 1134
Lysyi
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 80% vs Lysyi 40%
Matviichuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 50% vs Lysyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk +1 · Lysyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matviichuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 1.83 / Lysyi 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matviichuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13049140
Matviichuk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Lysyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatviichuk3wins
AwayLysyi7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLysyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatviichuk33.3%1 of 3
AwayLysyi71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matviichuk3Lysyi7n = 10Lysyi took 7 of 10
S2Matviichuk7Lysyi3n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S3Matviichuk3Lysyi7n = 10Lysyi took 7 of 10
S4Matviichuk1Lysyi8n = 9Lysyi took 8 of 9
S5Matviichuk2Lysyi1n = 3Matviichuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatviichukLysyiM − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.539.7−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukLysyiBasisWin rate · lifetime292 / 622 vs 177 / 41447%42.8%292 / 622 vs 177 / 414Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.935.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukMatviichuk 1.83/Lysyi 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matviichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 05:30V. Matviichuk—811481A. Lysyi—11711113
WAug 24 · 10:11V. Matviichuk—8111110113A. Lysyi—11831242
LAug 24 · 05:30V. Matviichuk—118581A. Lysyi—81111113
WAug 10 · 10:30V. Matviichuk—811113113A. Lysyi—11771162
LAug 10 · 05:30V. Matviichuk—11118382A. Lysyi—961111113
WAug 3 · 06:30V. Matviichuk—11116113A. Lysyi—841151
LAug 2 · 16:59V. Matviichuk—76110A. Lysyi—1111133
LAug 2 · 14:30V. Matviichuk—312791A. Lysyi—111011113
LJul 26 · 09:58V. Matviichuk—1031191A. Lysyi—12119113
LJul 26 · 08:00V. Matviichuk—611751A. Lysyi—11611113
V. Matviichuk10
WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk1.6111411133S. Zherykhin2.209119111WSep 6 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi3.00911931V. Matviichuk1.3611711113WSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:00A. Danylov1.731171171V. Matviichuk2.0013115113LSep 6 · 05:00S. Zherykhin3.0011911113V. Matviichuk1.36711831LSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.731111103V. Matviichuk2.007420LSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691WSep 3 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.53111111113V. Hyriavyi2.38138871
A. Lysyi10
LSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171LSep 6 · 08:30A. Danylov2.25121182113A. Lysyi1.57108111182LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113LSep 6 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.3011115262V. Hyriavyi3.40951111113LSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063LSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581WSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871
Upcoming Matches
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A. Lysyi
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