TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088632
Played Sep 7Finished
Yurii Urezchenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161194115111311
Anatoliy Lysyi
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:55 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeAnatoliy Lysyi to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Anatoliy Lysyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 92 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Anatoliy Lysyi at 70.3%
92 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 8–22 Anatoliy Lysyi Yurii Urezchenko has won 8 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:55What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lysyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-22 in 30
Lysyi
Wrong
gap of 14 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1106 vs Lysyi 1094
Urezchenko
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 20% vs Lysyi 40%
Lysyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 30% vs Lysyi 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko +1 · Lysyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Lysyi) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 3.25 / Lysyi 1.33
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Lysyi)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13088632
Urezchenko3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 41 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back13% 13 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Lysyi1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 60 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 43 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko2wins
AwayLysyi8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLysyi leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenko40%2 of 5
AwayLysyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko5Lysyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Urezchenko1Lysyi9n = 10Lysyi took 9 of 10
S3Urezchenko2Lysyi8n = 10Lysyi took 8 of 10
S4Urezchenko1Lysyi5n = 6Lysyi took 5 of 6
S5Urezchenko2Lysyi1n = 3Urezchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoLysyiU − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.741.0−9.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoLysyiBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 473 vs 182 / 42844.4%42.5%210 / 473 vs 182 / 428Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.735.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysyiUrezchenko 3.25/Lysyi 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.7%
Lysyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urezchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko—111145133A. Lysyi—691111112
LAug 31 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko—8750A. Lysyi—1111113
LAug 24 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko—11711292A. Lysyi—811811113
LAug 17 · 10:30Y. Urezchenko—1179151A. Lysyi—71111173
LAug 17 · 08:30Y. Urezchenko—5940A. Lysyi—1111113
WAug 10 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko—148711113A. Lysyi—121111992
LAug 10 · 07:00Y. Urezchenko—391121A. Lysyi—11118113
LAug 9 · 17:09Y. Urezchenko—1161071A. Lysyi—81112113
LAug 9 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko—9850A. Lysyi—1111113
LJun 29 · 09:59Y. Urezchenko—7590A. Lysyi—1111113
Y. Urezchenko10
WSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110WSep 7 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.611612113S. Zherykhin2.20141010LSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173LSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113LSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450LSep 1 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.616111111113Y. Urezchenko2.2011138662WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191LSep 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko4.3367100Y. Zvolynskyi1.201111123
A. Lysyi10
WSep 7 · 08:30V. Khyzhnyak5.00531261A. Lysyi1.14111110113WSep 7 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.7311811113S. Zherykhin2.00911481WSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171LSep 6 · 08:30A. Danylov2.25121182113A. Lysyi1.57108111182LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113LSep 6 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.3011115262V. Hyriavyi3.40951111113LSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063LSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581WSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171
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