TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13083994
Played Sep 6Finished
Yurii Urezchenko
Home
5.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
31151123––––
Valentyn Kurliuk
Away
1.13
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 86.5% is still 86.5%
Graded at full timeValentyn Kurliuk to win
86.5%
86.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 2-3
Point 35 set 3, 2-3 — our read held Valentyn Kurliuk at 86.5%
35 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 1–14 Valentyn Kurliuk Yurii Urezchenko has won 1 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Kurliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-14 in 15
Kurliuk
Correct
gap of 13 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1109 vs Kurliuk 1294
Kurliuk
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 40% vs Kurliuk 80%
Kurliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 50% vs Kurliuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko -2 · Kurliuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Kurliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urezchenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 5.50 / Kurliuk 1.13
Signal prob.14% / 87%
Edge (Kurliuk)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13083994
Urezchenko5.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 41 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back14% 13 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Kurliuk1.13
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 54 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko0wins
AwayKurliuk10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKurliuk leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKurliuk100%10 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko0Kurliuk10n = 10Kurliuk took 10 of 10
S2Urezchenko1Kurliuk9n = 10Kurliuk took 9 of 10
S3Urezchenko3Kurliuk7n = 10Kurliuk took 7 of 10
S4Urezchenko2Kurliuk2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoKurliukU − KBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match24.837.3−12.5per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 466 vs 144 / 28444.4%50.7%207 / 466 vs 144 / 284Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.835.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurliukUrezchenko 5.50/Kurliuk 1.13
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.5%
Kurliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 19 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—4360V. Kurliuk—1111113
LApr 14 · 10:00Y. Urezchenko—74111122V. Kurliuk—111168113
LApr 14 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—871161V. Kurliuk—11118113
LApr 8 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—91151182V. Kurliuk—119114113
LDec 23 · 10:30Y. Urezchenko—571161V. Kurliuk—11117113
LDec 11 · 07:00Y. Urezchenko—6960V. Kurliuk—1111113
LNov 27 · 10:30Y. Urezchenko—3850V. Kurliuk—1111113
LNov 26 · 14:30Y. Urezchenko—58100V. Kurliuk—1111123
LOct 23 · 07:30Y. Urezchenko—5650V. Kurliuk—1111113
LOct 22 · 12:00Y. Urezchenko—6850V. Kurliuk—1111113
Y. Urezchenko10
WSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.611612113S. Zherykhin2.20141010LSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173LSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113LSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450LSep 1 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.616111111113Y. Urezchenko2.2011138662WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191LSep 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko4.3367100Y. Zvolynskyi1.201111123WSep 1 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.615111111113S. Zherykhin2.2011761362
V. Kurliuk10
LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030LSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 06:30V. Kurliuk1.731111113S. Honcharenko2.009680WSep 4 · 05:00V. Kurliuk1.3071111133V. Khyzhnyak3.401157111LAug 12 · 10:08I. Sorochan1.2861111113V. Kurliuk3.50117891
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