TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084580
Played Sep 6Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118119––––
Valentyn Kurliuk
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeValentyn Kurliuk to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Valentyn Kurliuk at 62.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 13–15 Valentyn Kurliuk Serhii Honcharenko has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kurliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-15 in 28
Kurliuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1299 vs Kurliuk 1308
Kurliuk
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 80% vs Kurliuk 100%
Kurliuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 50% vs Kurliuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +1 · Kurliuk +5
Kurliuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kurliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurliuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 2.50 / Kurliuk 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kurliuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084580
Honcharenko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 71 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Kurliuk1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 54 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko4wins
AwayKurliuk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurliuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko60%3 of 5
AwayKurliuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko5Kurliuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Honcharenko4Kurliuk6n = 10Kurliuk took 6 of 10
S3Honcharenko4Kurliuk6n = 10Kurliuk took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko4Kurliuk2n = 6Honcharenko took 4 of 6
S5Honcharenko1Kurliuk2n = 3Kurliuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoKurliukH − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.836.5−0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime425 / 827 vs 144 / 28351.4%50.9%425 / 827 vs 144 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurliukHoncharenko 2.50/Kurliuk 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Kurliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 06:30S. Honcharenko—9680V. Kurliuk—1111113
WAug 5 · 07:30S. Honcharenko—1111113V. Kurliuk—8590
LJul 30 · 05:00S. Honcharenko—6101111102V. Kurliuk—111255123
LJun 30 · 08:00S. Honcharenko—61180V. Kurliuk—1113113
WJun 26 · 06:00S. Honcharenko—1111113V. Kurliuk—5730
WJun 14 · 05:00S. Honcharenko—1111211113V. Kurliuk—13911992
LJun 13 · 12:30S. Honcharenko—18481152V. Kurliuk—1611115113
LApr 23 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—118971V. Kurliuk—61111113
WApr 20 · 09:30S. Honcharenko—11211113V. Kurliuk—711661
LApr 16 · 09:00S. Honcharenko—911771V. Kurliuk—11811113
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691LSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123
V. Kurliuk10
LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030WSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133WSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 06:30V. Kurliuk1.731111113S. Honcharenko2.009680WSep 4 · 05:00V. Kurliuk1.3071111133V. Khyzhnyak3.401157111LAug 12 · 10:08I. Sorochan1.2861111113V. Kurliuk3.50117891
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