TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078854
Played Sep 5Finished
Roman Sveshnykov
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11971111697––
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:18 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeRoman Sveshnykov to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingRoman Sveshnykov above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-7
Point 71 set 4, 9-7 — our read held Roman Sveshnykov at 55.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Roman Sveshnykov 16–13 Serhii Honcharenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sveshnykov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Sveshnykov
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sveshnykov 1252 vs Honcharenko 1299
Honcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sveshnykov 80% vs Honcharenko 60%
Sveshnykov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sveshnykov 50% vs Honcharenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sveshnykov +1 · Honcharenko +3
Honcharenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Sveshnykov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSveshnykov 1.61 / Honcharenko 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Sveshnykov)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13078854
Sveshnykov1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite79% won 30 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Honcharenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSveshnykov7wins
AwayHoncharenko3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSveshnykov leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSveshnykov66.7%4 of 6
AwayHoncharenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sveshnykov6Honcharenko4n = 10Sveshnykov took 6 of 10
S2Sveshnykov6Honcharenko4n = 10Sveshnykov took 6 of 10
S3Sveshnykov5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Sveshnykov4Honcharenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Sveshnykov4Honcharenko2n = 6Sveshnykov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSveshnykovHoncharenkoS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.039.9+4.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSveshnykovHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 270 vs 424 / 82539.3%51.4%106 / 270 vs 424 / 825Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SveshnykovSveshnykov 1.61/Honcharenko 2.20
Hit
What we said
55.3%
Sveshnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sveshnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 10:34R. Sveshnykov—129101162S. Honcharenko—1011129113
WAug 30 · 06:00R. Sveshnykov—14111113S. Honcharenko—1211591
LAug 23 · 14:30R. Sveshnykov—79110S. Honcharenko—1111133
WAug 2 · 09:28R. Sveshnykov—711116113S. Honcharenko—11591192
WJul 26 · 10:28R. Sveshnykov—12129113S. Honcharenko—10101161
WJul 26 · 06:00R. Sveshnykov—9111111113S. Honcharenko—11513442
WJul 12 · 05:00R. Sveshnykov—911119113S. Honcharenko—11561152
WJun 13 · 15:00R. Sveshnykov—1111113S. Honcharenko—9480
LMay 8 · 06:00R. Sveshnykov—1111109112S. Honcharenko—871211133
WMar 29 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov—118118113S. Honcharenko—81171182
R. Sveshnykov10
WSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133WSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672WSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063WSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581LSep 5 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov3.756990I. Sorochan1.251111113WSep 5 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.731111103V. Matviichuk2.007420WSep 3 · 17:33O. Levytskyi1.4491070R. Sveshnykov2.631112113
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691LSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123
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