TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084495
Played Sep 6Finished
Yurii Urezchenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
81171157––––
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-7
Point 49 set 3, 5-7 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 56.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 66–62 Serhii Honcharenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 62 of their 128 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-62 in 128
Urezchenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 128, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1071 vs Honcharenko 1368
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 297 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 0% vs Honcharenko 80%
Honcharenko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 30% vs Honcharenko 70%
Honcharenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko -5 · Honcharenko +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Honcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 2.20 / Honcharenko 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Honcharenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084495
Urezchenko2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog30% won 41 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back14% 13 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Honcharenko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 100 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it85% 80 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko5wins
AwayHoncharenko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenko80%4 of 5
AwayHoncharenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Urezchenko6Honcharenko4n = 10Urezchenko took 6 of 10
S3Urezchenko5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Urezchenko5Honcharenko4n = 9Urezchenko took 5 of 9
S5Urezchenko1Honcharenko3n = 4Honcharenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoHoncharenkoU − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.742.1−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 469 vs 428 / 83044.1%51.6%207 / 469 vs 428 / 830Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoUrezchenko 2.20/Honcharenko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko—11138662S. Honcharenko—6111111113
WAug 31 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko—12811123S. Honcharenko—10119101
LAug 25 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko—101161172S. Honcharenko—128115113
WAug 24 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko—51312113S. Honcharenko—11111061
WAug 19 · 07:00Y. Urezchenko—117114133S. Honcharenko—611911112
LJul 21 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko—3131081S. Honcharenko—111112113
WJul 20 · 10:34Y. Urezchenko—11312113S. Honcharenko—9111091
LJul 20 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko—712111072S. Honcharenko—1110612113
LJul 13 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko—7560S. Honcharenko—1111113
WJul 8 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko—11119113S. Honcharenko—471191
Y. Urezchenko10
WSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.611612113S. Zherykhin2.20141010LSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113LSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 1 · 10:13O. Badanin1.751111113Y. Urezchenko1.953450LSep 1 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.616111111113Y. Urezchenko2.2011138662WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.2011114113O. Badanin1.61781191LSep 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko4.3367100Y. Zvolynskyi1.201111123WSep 1 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko1.615111111113S. Zherykhin2.2011761362
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691WSep 1 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.616111111113Y. Urezchenko2.2011138662
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