TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079117
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151181113811119
Ihor Sorochan
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Ihor Sorochan below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 56.2%
98 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 38–27 Ihor Sorochan Ihor Sorochan has won 27 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sorochan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-27 in 65
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1287 vs Sorochan 1374
Sorochan
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 60% vs Sorochan 40%
Honcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 50% vs Sorochan 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +2 · Sorochan +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sorochan) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sorochan form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.91 / Sorochan 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sorochan)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13079117
Honcharenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Sorochan1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 66 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko9wins
AwaySorochan1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%6 of 6
AwaySorochan25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko6Sorochan4n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Honcharenko9Sorochan1n = 10Honcharenko took 9 of 10
S3Honcharenko7Sorochan3n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S4Honcharenko4Sorochan3n = 7Honcharenko took 4 of 7
S5Honcharenko3Sorochan1n = 4Honcharenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoSorochanH − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.935.1+7.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoSorochanBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 824 vs 245 / 43551.3%56.3%423 / 824 vs 245 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.91/Sorochan 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sorochan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 10:00S. Honcharenko—1111113I. Sorochan—4880
WAug 19 · 05:30S. Honcharenko—1211113I. Sorochan—10690
WAug 18 · 09:58S. Honcharenko—11119123I. Sorochan—7811101
WAug 18 · 08:30S. Honcharenko—15121111113I. Sorochan—171071362
WAug 10 · 16:58S. Honcharenko—71111113I. Sorochan—119461
WAug 10 · 13:30S. Honcharenko—11118113I. Sorochan—861151
LAug 2 · 06:28S. Honcharenko—61111772I. Sorochan—118811113
WJul 12 · 06:30S. Honcharenko—1181112113I. Sorochan—91181482
WJul 5 · 12:30S. Honcharenko—811911113I. Sorochan—11611562
WJun 12 · 07:30S. Honcharenko—1111113I. Sorochan—8470
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko2.208750S. Honcharenko1.61111173WSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871WSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691LSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123
I. Sorochan10
LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113WSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030LSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672LSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113WSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191WSep 5 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov3.756990I. Sorochan1.251111113WSep 5 · 12:30A. Lysyi4.007860I. Sorochan1.221111113LAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan1.83715111092I. Dubinin1.831113512113
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