TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044077
Played Aug 30Finished
Ihor Sorochan
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71115131151012911
Ihor Dubinin
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Sorochan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIhor Sorochan above · Ihor Dubinin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 104 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Ihor Sorochan at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Sorochan 15–15 Ihor Dubinin Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 2–8Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:05What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dubinin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sorochan 1350 vs Dubinin 1348
Sorochan
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sorochan 20% vs Dubinin 40%
Dubinin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sorochan 40% vs Dubinin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sorochan -2 · Dubinin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dubinin) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dubinin form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSorochan 1.83 / Dubinin 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dubinin)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13044077
Sorochan1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Dubinin1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSorochan2wins
AwayDubinin8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDubinin leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSorochan28.6%2 of 7
AwayDubinin100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sorochan7Dubinin3n = 10Sorochan took 7 of 10
S2Sorochan3Dubinin7n = 10Dubinin took 7 of 10
S3Sorochan4Dubinin6n = 10Dubinin took 6 of 10
S4Sorochan1Dubinin6n = 7Dubinin took 6 of 7
S5Sorochan0Dubinin3n = 3Dubinin took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSorochanDubininS − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.139.8−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSorochanDubininBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 458 vs 228 / 44557.4%51.2%263 / 458 vs 228 / 445Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DubininSorochan 1.83/Dubinin 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dubinin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan—715111092I. Dubinin—1113512113
WAug 24 · 14:30I. Sorochan—1111133I. Dubinin—36110
LJul 5 · 13:30I. Sorochan—113681I. Dubinin—51111113
LJun 2 · 14:30I. Sorochan—1181151I. Dubinin—71113113
LApr 12 · 14:30I. Sorochan—111212952I. Dubinin—510141183
LMar 30 · 12:00I. Sorochan—1171281I. Dubinin—61114113
LMar 23 · 13:00I. Sorochan—11611662I. Dubinin—611811113
LFeb 16 · 14:30I. Sorochan—712110I. Dubinin—1114133
LJan 26 · 15:30I. Sorochan—2890I. Dubinin—1111113
WNov 21 · 08:00I. Sorochan—111211113I. Dubinin—914691
I. Sorochan10
LSep 6 · 17:29I. Sorochan1.9111111111S. Honcharenko1.8091313113WSep 6 · 15:30Y. Urezchenko4.501760I. Sorochan1.171111113WSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030LSep 6 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.731111113I. Sorochan2.008860WSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672LSep 5 · 17:33I. Sorochan2.07611111062S. Honcharenko1.67118912113WSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 15:00S. Honcharenko1.911111118113I. Sorochan1.8058131192WSep 5 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov3.756990I. Sorochan1.251111113WSep 5 · 12:30A. Lysyi4.007860I. Sorochan1.221111113
I. Dubinin10
LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123LSep 4 · 13:30I. Dubinin3.406760O. Torianyk1.301111113LSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113WSep 1 · 17:38N. Priadko1.80691181I. Dubinin1.9111118113LSep 1 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4071711113I. Dubinin2.751115781WSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin3.4091411113P. Kolesnik1.301112891WSep 1 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.801111183R. Hryhoriev1.9139160WSep 1 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.38124411113N. Priadko1.53101111592WAug 30 · 17:33Y. Zvolynskyi3.25118991I. Dubinin1.3391111113
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