TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055072
Played Sep 1Finished
Ihor Dubinin
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131191816––––
Roman Hryhoriev
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Dubinin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Roman Hryhoriev below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 18-16
Point 68 set 3, 18-16 — our read held Ihor Dubinin at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 38–34 Roman Hryhoriev Roman Hryhoriev has won 34 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:55What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dubinin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-34 in 72
Dubinin
Correct
gap of 4 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1358 vs Hryhoriev 1351
Dubinin
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 80% vs Hryhoriev 40%
Dubinin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 60% vs Hryhoriev 30%
Dubinin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin +4 · Hryhoriev -1
Dubinin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dubinin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hryhoriev form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 1.80 / Hryhoriev 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dubinin)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13055072
Dubinin1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 51 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Hryhoriev1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 9 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin6wins
AwayHryhoriev4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDubinin leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin62.5%5 of 8
AwayHryhorievn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin8Hryhoriev2n = 10Dubinin took 8 of 10
S2Dubinin5Hryhoriev5n = 10split evenly
S3Dubinin3Hryhoriev7n = 10Hryhoriev took 7 of 10
S4Dubinin5Hryhoriev2n = 7Dubinin took 5 of 7
S5Dubinin3Hryhoriev3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininHryhorievD − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.038.6+3.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininHryhorievBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 441 vs 122 / 25551.3%47.8%226 / 441 vs 122 / 255Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DubininDubinin 1.80/Hryhoriev 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dubinin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 17:08I. Dubinin—148811102R. Hryhoriev—1211116123
WAug 17 · 15:00I. Dubinin—1111113R. Hryhoriev—8770
WJul 22 · 13:30I. Dubinin—711511113R. Hryhoriev—11811122
LJul 13 · 15:00I. Dubinin—111164112R. Hryhoriev—811111133
WJul 8 · 15:00I. Dubinin—118117113R. Hryhoriev—51161172
LJul 3 · 12:00I. Dubinin—9880R. Hryhoriev—1111113
WJun 25 · 15:00I. Dubinin—11116133R. Hryhoriev—6511111
WApr 30 · 16:00I. Dubinin—1211113R. Hryhoriev—10770
LApr 16 · 12:00I. Dubinin—156111192R. Hryhoriev—1311139113
WApr 7 · 17:29I. Dubinin—1141011123R. Hryhoriev—611129102
I. Dubinin10
LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123LSep 4 · 13:30I. Dubinin3.406760O. Torianyk1.301111113LSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113WSep 1 · 17:38N. Priadko1.80691181I. Dubinin1.9111118113LSep 1 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4071711113I. Dubinin2.751115781WSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin3.4091411113P. Kolesnik1.301112891WSep 1 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.38124411113N. Priadko1.53101111592WAug 30 · 17:33Y. Zvolynskyi3.25118991I. Dubinin1.3391111113WAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan1.83715111092I. Dubinin1.831113512113
R. Hryhoriev10
LSep 3 · 17:03R. Hryhoriev2.63951121S. Sideltsev1.4411118113LSep 3 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.83111113113R. Hryhoriev1.831391191WSep 3 · 14:30O. Levytskyi3.5091261192R. Hryhoriev1.281110119113WSep 3 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov2.10117451R. Hryhoriev1.6731111113WSep 3 · 12:00N. Priadko1.91148551R. Hryhoriev1.80121111113LSep 1 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.501113113R. Hryhoriev2.5071170WSep 1 · 14:30R. Hryhoriev2.381111113N. Priadko1.535580LSep 1 · 12:30R. Hryhoriev4.336930P. Kolesnik1.201111113WAug 17 · 17:08R. Hryhoriev1.911211116123I. Dubinin1.80148811102WAug 17 · 16:00R. Hryhoriev1.4491113113Y. Zvolynskyi2.631171151
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