TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073249
Played Sep 4Finished
Mykola Pohorilyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115911115611116
Ihor Dubinin
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeMykola Pohorilyi to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Pohorilyi above · Ihor Dubinin below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Mykola Pohorilyi at 67.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Pohorilyi 37–24 Ihor Dubinin Ihor Dubinin has won 24 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pohorilyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-24 in 61
Pohorilyi
Correct
gap of 13 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohorilyi 1451 vs Dubinin 1355
Pohorilyi
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohorilyi 60% vs Dubinin 20%
Pohorilyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohorilyi 70% vs Dubinin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohorilyi +1 · Dubinin -3
Dubinin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Pohorilyi) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dubinin form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohorilyi 1.40 / Dubinin 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Pohorilyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13073249
Pohorilyi1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 122 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it87% 98 of 113
Dubinin2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 39 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohorilyi9wins
AwayDubinin1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPohorilyi leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohorilyi100%8 of 8
AwayDubininn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohorilyi8Dubinin2n = 10Pohorilyi took 8 of 10
S2Pohorilyi8Dubinin2n = 10Pohorilyi took 8 of 10
S3Pohorilyi9Dubinin1n = 10Pohorilyi took 9 of 10
S4Pohorilyi1Dubinin3n = 4Dubinin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohorilyiDubininP − DBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.529.9+8.6per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohorilyiDubininBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 611 vs 225 / 44456.8%50.7%347 / 611 vs 225 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohorilyiPohorilyi 1.40/Dubinin 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Pohorilyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pohorilyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi—119116113I. Dubinin—51151162
WSep 1 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi—71711113I. Dubinin—1115781
WAug 17 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi—115119113I. Dubinin—51141182
WAug 13 · 12:00M. Pohorilyi—1111123I. Dubinin—76100
WAug 6 · 12:00M. Pohorilyi—1111123I. Dubinin—35100
WAug 4 · 13:30M. Pohorilyi—1114113I. Dubinin—71280
LJul 28 · 17:28M. Pohorilyi—6118101I. Dubinin—11511123
WJul 28 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi—1111113I. Dubinin—5880
WJul 22 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi—1511113I. Dubinin—13690
WJul 18 · 17:29M. Pohorilyi—1311113I. Dubinin—11680
M. Pohorilyi10
LSep 5 · 10:31M. Pohorilyi4.05105100D. Tsys1.181211123WSep 5 · 08:30N. Priadko1.834370M. Pohorilyi1.831111113WSep 5 · 07:30M. Pohorilyi2.7511118113O. Torianyk1.40941141LSep 5 · 06:30D. Tsys1.221111113M. Pohorilyi4.006660WSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi1.571113113S. Sideltsev2.2591160LSep 4 · 17:35D. Tsys1.221211113M. Pohorilyi4.0010590WSep 4 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi3.0071111113O. Torianyk1.36117561LSep 4 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.75118551D. Tsys1.2561111113WSep 4 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.578111211113V. Simchuk2.25111310722WSep 2 · 10:18M. Pohorilyi2.0011712113N. Priadko1.734111091
I. Dubinin10
LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123LSep 4 · 13:30I. Dubinin3.406760O. Torianyk1.301111113LSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113WSep 1 · 17:38N. Priadko1.80691181I. Dubinin1.9111118113LSep 1 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.4071711113I. Dubinin2.751115781WSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin3.4091411113P. Kolesnik1.301112891WSep 1 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.801111183R. Hryhoriev1.9139160WSep 1 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.38124411113N. Priadko1.53101111592WAug 30 · 17:33Y. Zvolynskyi3.25118991I. Dubinin1.3391111113WAug 30 · 16:30I. Sorochan1.83715111092I. Dubinin1.831113512113
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