TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073030
Played Sep 4Finished
Mykola Pohorilyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81111131210117112
Viacheslav Simchuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:58 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMykola Pohorilyi to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Pohorilyi above · Viacheslav Simchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 96 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Mykola Pohorilyi at 55.8%
96 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Pohorilyi 19–16 Viacheslav Simchuk Viacheslav Simchuk has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:58What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pohorilyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-16 in 35
Pohorilyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohorilyi 1429 vs Simchuk 1395
Pohorilyi
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohorilyi 60% vs Simchuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohorilyi 60% vs Simchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohorilyi +1 · Simchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pohorilyi) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simchuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohorilyi 1.57 / Simchuk 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Pohorilyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073030
Pohorilyi1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 122 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it87% 98 of 113
Simchuk2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 26 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohorilyi6wins
AwaySimchuk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPohorilyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohorilyi83.3%5 of 6
AwaySimchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohorilyi6Simchuk4n = 10Pohorilyi took 6 of 10
S2Pohorilyi9Simchuk1n = 10Pohorilyi took 9 of 10
S3Pohorilyi4Simchuk6n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S4Pohorilyi6Simchuk2n = 8Pohorilyi took 6 of 8
S5Pohorilyi0Simchuk3n = 3Simchuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohorilyiSimchukP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.033.7+5.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohorilyiSimchukBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 610 vs 275 / 44756.7%61.5%346 / 610 vs 275 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohorilyiPohorilyi 1.57/Simchuk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Pohorilyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pohorilyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi—11115582V. Simchuk—651111113
WAug 17 · 17:40M. Pohorilyi—11117113V. Simchuk—771151
LAug 17 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi—911481V. Simchuk—11911113
WAug 12 · 10:38M. Pohorilyi—11117113V. Simchuk—761131
WAug 12 · 06:00M. Pohorilyi—11116113V. Simchuk—651171
WAug 11 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi—1111113V. Simchuk—3590
WAug 6 · 15:00M. Pohorilyi—1111113V. Simchuk—8550
LAug 5 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi—111161152V. Simchuk—139116113
WJul 19 · 09:00M. Pohorilyi—51111113V. Simchuk—115881
LJul 17 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi—911111192V. Simchuk—111349113
M. Pohorilyi10
LSep 5 · 10:31M. Pohorilyi4.05105100D. Tsys1.181211123WSep 5 · 08:30N. Priadko1.834370M. Pohorilyi1.831111113WSep 5 · 07:30M. Pohorilyi2.7511118113O. Torianyk1.40941141LSep 5 · 06:30D. Tsys1.221111113M. Pohorilyi4.006660WSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi1.571113113S. Sideltsev2.2591160LSep 4 · 17:35D. Tsys1.221211113M. Pohorilyi4.0010590WSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162WSep 4 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi3.0071111113O. Torianyk1.36117561LSep 4 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.75118551D. Tsys1.2561111113WSep 2 · 10:18M. Pohorilyi2.0011712113N. Priadko1.734111091
V. Simchuk10
LSep 4 · 17:19V. Simchuk3.401186101O. Torianyk1.2571111123LSep 4 · 16:00D. Tsys1.571111113V. Simchuk2.258470LSep 4 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.301111113V. Simchuk3.406990WSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113LAug 30 · 17:14S. Sideltsev1.101411103V. Simchuk6.5012780WAug 30 · 15:30I. Sorochan1.834980V. Simchuk1.831111113LAug 30 · 14:30V. Simchuk1.2865111192Y. Zvolynskyi3.50111178103WAug 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin2.20111111942V. Simchuk1.61513811113LAug 30 · 12:30V. Simchuk2.25591131S. Sideltsev1.5711115113WAug 24 · 17:28I. Dubinin2.2011137492V. Simchuk1.616111111113
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