TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044465
Played Aug 30Finished
Viacheslav Simchuk
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511911115311––
Sergii Sideltsev
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeSergii Sideltsev to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Sergii Sideltsev below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 66 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Sergii Sideltsev at 59.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 7–12 Sergii Sideltsev Viacheslav Simchuk has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sideltsev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Sideltsev
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1381 vs Sideltsev 1528
Sideltsev
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 40% vs Sideltsev 80%
Sideltsev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 70% vs Sideltsev 90%
Sideltsev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk +2 · Sideltsev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Sideltsev) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sideltsev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 2.25 / Sideltsev 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Sideltsev)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13044465
Simchuk2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 25 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Sideltsev1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 95 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it100% 64 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 76 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk3wins
AwaySideltsev7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSideltsev leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk50%2 of 4
AwaySideltsev83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk4Sideltsev6n = 10Sideltsev took 6 of 10
S2Simchuk3Sideltsev7n = 10Sideltsev took 7 of 10
S3Simchuk6Sideltsev4n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S4Simchuk0Sideltsev5n = 5Sideltsev took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukSideltsevSimchuk − SideltsevBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.138.1−3.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukSideltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 455 vs 233 / 39861.1%58.5%278 / 455 vs 233 / 398Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SideltsevSimchuk 2.25/Sideltsev 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Sideltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sideltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 17:14V. Simchuk—12780S. Sideltsev—1411103
LAug 30 · 12:30V. Simchuk—591131S. Sideltsev—11115113
LAug 24 · 15:00V. Simchuk—11511932S. Sideltsev—511911113
LAug 6 · 14:00V. Simchuk—119781S. Sideltsev—71111113
LJul 1 · 07:00V. Simchuk—66130S. Sideltsev—1111153
WJun 24 · 06:30V. Simchuk—2011119123S. Sideltsev—226711102
LJun 19 · 08:30V. Simchuk—881181S. Sideltsev—11119113
LJun 12 · 08:00V. Simchuk—98160S. Sideltsev—1111183
WMay 31 · 14:30V. Simchuk—1111113S. Sideltsev—8680
WMay 1 · 09:00V. Simchuk—1111113S. Sideltsev—8970
V. Simchuk10
LSep 4 · 17:19V. Simchuk3.401186101O. Torianyk1.2571111123LSep 4 · 16:00D. Tsys1.571111113V. Simchuk2.258470LSep 4 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.301111113V. Simchuk3.406990LSep 4 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.578111211113V. Simchuk2.25111310722WSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113LAug 30 · 17:14S. Sideltsev1.101411103V. Simchuk6.5012780WAug 30 · 15:30I. Sorochan1.834980V. Simchuk1.831111113LAug 30 · 14:30V. Simchuk1.2865111192Y. Zvolynskyi3.50111178103WAug 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin2.20111111942V. Simchuk1.61513811113WAug 24 · 17:28I. Dubinin2.2011137492V. Simchuk1.616111111113
S. Sideltsev10
LSep 5 · 09:58O. Torianyk1.501111113S. Sideltsev2.508980LSep 5 · 09:00S. Sideltsev2.2010940O. Torianyk1.611211113WSep 5 · 08:00D. Tsys1.444111071S. Sideltsev2.6311512113WSep 5 · 07:00N. Priadko3.4011711642S. Sideltsev1.30611911113LSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi1.571113113S. Sideltsev2.2591160WSep 3 · 17:03R. Hryhoriev2.63951121S. Sideltsev1.4411118113WSep 3 · 16:00S. Sideltsev1.83111113113R. Hryhoriev1.831391191WSep 3 · 15:00N. Priadko2.385790S. Sideltsev1.531111113WSep 3 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov4.0076121382S. Sideltsev1.2211111011113WAug 30 · 17:14S. Sideltsev1.101411103V. Simchuk6.5012780
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