TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044049
Played Aug 30Finished
Viacheslav Simchuk
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611511117118910
Yurii Zvolynskyi
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Yurii Zvolynskyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-10
Point 89 set 5, 9-10 — our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 77.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 84–37 Yurii Zvolynskyi Yurii Zvolynskyi has won 37 of their 121 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Simchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
84-37 in 121
Simchuk
Wrong
gap of 47 in 121, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1403 vs Zvolynskyi 1233
Simchuk
Wrong
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 60% vs Zvolynskyi 40%
Simchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 60% vs Zvolynskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk +1 · Zvolynskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Simchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zvolynskyi form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 1.28 / Zvolynskyi 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Simchuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13044049
Simchuk1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 108 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it93% 77 of 83
Zvolynskyi3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 39 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk8wins
AwayZvolynskyi2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayZvolynskyi25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk6Zvolynskyi4n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S2Simchuk7Zvolynskyi3n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S3Simchuk7Zvolynskyi3n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S4Simchuk6Zvolynskyi1n = 7Simchuk took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukZvolynskyiS − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.830.9+8.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukZvolynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 452 vs 298 / 57061.3%52.3%277 / 452 vs 298 / 570Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukSimchuk 1.28/Zvolynskyi 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.5%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zvolynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 16:30V. Simchuk—1111113Y. Zvolynskyi—5570
WAug 23 · 15:00V. Simchuk—61111113Y. Zvolynskyi—115961
LAug 17 · 14:30V. Simchuk—951481Y. Zvolynskyi—111112113
WAug 11 · 07:00V. Simchuk—1211113Y. Zvolynskyi—10950
WAug 5 · 10:29V. Simchuk—1111123Y. Zvolynskyi—76100
WAug 5 · 07:00V. Simchuk—111110113Y. Zvolynskyi—281251
WJul 30 · 07:00V. Simchuk—71111113Y. Zvolynskyi—117391
WJul 17 · 16:00V. Simchuk—11119113Y. Zvolynskyi—941151
LJun 30 · 06:00V. Simchuk—117121172Y. Zvolynskyi—311149113
WJun 24 · 10:29V. Simchuk—791111113Y. Zvolynskyi—11113552
V. Simchuk10
LSep 4 · 17:19V. Simchuk3.401186101O. Torianyk1.2571111123LSep 4 · 16:00D. Tsys1.571111113V. Simchuk2.258470LSep 4 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.301111113V. Simchuk3.406990LSep 4 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.578111211113V. Simchuk2.25111310722WSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113LAug 30 · 17:14S. Sideltsev1.101411103V. Simchuk6.5012780WAug 30 · 15:30I. Sorochan1.834980V. Simchuk1.831111113WAug 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin2.20111111942V. Simchuk1.61513811113LAug 30 · 12:30V. Simchuk2.25591131S. Sideltsev1.5711115113WAug 24 · 17:28I. Dubinin2.2011137492V. Simchuk1.616111111113
Y. Zvolynskyi10
LSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.081111113V. Khyzhnyak7.005970LSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin4.33811134102Y. Zvolynskyi1.201191111123WSep 4 · 05:30S. Honcharenko2.384660Y. Zvolynskyi1.531111113LSep 3 · 10:35S. Honcharenko2.004121111113Y. Zvolynskyi1.73111071362WSep 3 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.501111110113S. Honcharenko2.5091181262WSep 3 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.141111113V. Hyriavyi5.005660WSep 3 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.251111113V. Matviichuk3.759990WSep 3 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.1071211113S. Zherykhin6.501110741
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