TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072971
Played Sep 4Finished
Valentyn Kurliuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116511113114
Yurii Zvolynskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeValentyn Kurliuk to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Kurliuk above · Yurii Zvolynskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 80 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Valentyn Kurliuk at 56.7%
80 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Kurliuk 13–6 Yurii Zvolynskyi Yurii Zvolynskyi has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:53What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kurliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Kurliuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurliuk 1262 vs Zvolynskyi 1339
Zvolynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurliuk 60% vs Zvolynskyi 80%
Zvolynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurliuk 30% vs Zvolynskyi 70%
Zvolynskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurliuk +2 · Zvolynskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kurliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zvolynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurliuk 1.73 / Zvolynskyi 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kurliuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13072971
Kurliuk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 49 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Zvolynskyi2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 40 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back16% 13 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurliuk6wins
AwayZvolynskyi4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurliuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurliuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayZvolynskyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurliuk7Zvolynskyi3n = 10Kurliuk took 7 of 10
S2Kurliuk5Zvolynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurliuk7Zvolynskyi3n = 10Kurliuk took 7 of 10
S4Kurliuk3Zvolynskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Kurliuk1Zvolynskyi2n = 3Zvolynskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurliukZvolynskyiK − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.334.1+2.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurliukZvolynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 280 vs 309 / 58150.4%53.2%141 / 280 vs 309 / 581Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurliukKurliuk 1.73/Zvolynskyi 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Kurliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 06:00V. Kurliuk—11116362Y. Zvolynskyi—951111113
LJul 30 · 10:39V. Kurliuk—118117102Y. Zvolynskyi—911711123
LJul 30 · 09:30V. Kurliuk—881181Y. Zvolynskyi—11114113
WJul 17 · 15:00V. Kurliuk—1111113Y. Zvolynskyi—7780
WJul 6 · 10:29V. Kurliuk—11119113Y. Zvolynskyi—991181
WJul 6 · 09:30V. Kurliuk—1111123Y. Zvolynskyi—25100
WJun 30 · 10:28V. Kurliuk—1111113Y. Zvolynskyi—9970
LJun 30 · 09:30V. Kurliuk—4750Y. Zvolynskyi—1111113
WMay 12 · 09:30V. Kurliuk—791111113Y. Zvolynskyi—11117552
WApr 6 · 10:04V. Kurliuk—11411113Y. Zvolynskyi—911861
V. Kurliuk10
LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030WSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 06:30V. Kurliuk1.731111113S. Honcharenko2.009680WSep 4 · 05:00V. Kurliuk1.3071111133V. Khyzhnyak3.401157111LAug 12 · 10:08I. Sorochan1.2861111113V. Kurliuk3.50117891
Y. Zvolynskyi10
LSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.081111113V. Khyzhnyak7.005970WSep 4 · 07:00O. Badanin4.33811134102Y. Zvolynskyi1.201191111123WSep 4 · 05:30S. Honcharenko2.384660Y. Zvolynskyi1.531111113LSep 3 · 10:35S. Honcharenko2.004121111113Y. Zvolynskyi1.73111071362WSep 3 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.501111110113S. Honcharenko2.5091181262WSep 3 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.141111113V. Hyriavyi5.005660WSep 3 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.251111113V. Matviichuk3.759990WSep 3 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.1071211113S. Zherykhin6.501110741WSep 2 · 09:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.751111113M. Pohorilyi1.409880
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