TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084076
Played Sep 6Finished
Roman Sveshnykov
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115119311811119
Valentyn Kurliuk
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:59 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeValentyn Kurliuk to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Sveshnykov above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Valentyn Kurliuk at 76.6%
89 points played in total.
H2H Roman Sveshnykov 2–6 Valentyn Kurliuk Roman Sveshnykov has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:59What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kurliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Kurliuk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sveshnykov 1278 vs Kurliuk 1294
Kurliuk
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sveshnykov 60% vs Kurliuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sveshnykov 70% vs Kurliuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sveshnykov -1 · Kurliuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kurliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurliuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSveshnykov 3.75 / Kurliuk 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kurliuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084076
Sveshnykov3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 29 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Kurliuk1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 54 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it89% 46 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSveshnykov2wins
AwayKurliuk6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderKurliuk leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSveshnykovn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKurliuk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sveshnykov1Kurliuk7n = 8Kurliuk took 7 of 8
S2Sveshnykov3Kurliuk5n = 8Kurliuk took 5 of 8
S3Sveshnykov3Kurliuk5n = 8Kurliuk took 5 of 8
S4Sveshnykov1Kurliuk4n = 5Kurliuk took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricSveshnykovKurliukS − KBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match27.937.5−9.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSveshnykovKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 277 vs 145 / 28840.1%50.4%111 / 277 vs 145 / 288Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.035.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurliukSveshnykov 3.75/Kurliuk 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.6%
Kurliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sveshnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 6 · 16:59R. Sveshnykov—51111133V. Kurliuk—1146111
WSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov—111138113V. Kurliuk—59111192
LJul 19 · 10:35R. Sveshnykov—5880V. Kurliuk—1111113
LJul 19 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov—1141171V. Kurliuk—13115113
LJun 13 · 17:34R. Sveshnykov—711271V. Kurliuk—11911113
LJun 13 · 13:30R. Sveshnykov—691191V. Kurliuk—11119113
LDec 18 · 08:00R. Sveshnykov—5240V. Kurliuk—1111113
LDec 4 · 09:00R. Sveshnykov—2640V. Kurliuk—1111113
R. Sveshnykov10
WSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672WSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063WSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581LSep 5 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov3.756990I. Sorochan1.251111113WSep 5 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.731111103V. Matviichuk2.007420WSep 3 · 17:33O. Levytskyi1.4491070R. Sveshnykov2.631112113
V. Kurliuk10
LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030WSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133LSep 6 · 12:00S. Honcharenko2.501111113V. Kurliuk1.508890WSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113WSep 4 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.73711511113Y. Zvolynskyi2.0011611342WSep 4 · 06:30V. Kurliuk1.731111113S. Honcharenko2.009680WSep 4 · 05:00V. Kurliuk1.3071111133V. Khyzhnyak3.401157111LAug 12 · 10:08I. Sorochan1.2861111113V. Kurliuk3.50117891
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.