TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078875
Played Sep 5Finished
Roman Sveshnykov
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114102––––
Vasyl Matviichuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Sveshnykov above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-2
Point 45 set 3, 10-2 — our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Roman Sveshnykov 2–15 Vasyl Matviichuk Roman Sveshnykov has won 2 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:33What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sveshnykov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-15 in 17
Matviichuk
Wrong
gap of 13 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sveshnykov 1245 vs Matviichuk 1118
Sveshnykov
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sveshnykov 40% vs Matviichuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sveshnykov 40% vs Matviichuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sveshnykov +2 · Matviichuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sveshnykov) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sveshnykov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSveshnykov 1.73 / Matviichuk 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Sveshnykov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13078875
Sveshnykov1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite79% won 30 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Matviichuk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 33 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back7% 5 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSveshnykov2wins
AwayMatviichuk8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMatviichuk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSveshnykov40%2 of 5
AwayMatviichuk100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sveshnykov5Matviichuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Sveshnykov7Matviichuk3n = 10Sveshnykov took 7 of 10
S3Sveshnykov2Matviichuk8n = 10Matviichuk took 8 of 10
S4Sveshnykov2Matviichuk6n = 8Matviichuk took 6 of 8
S5Sveshnykov0Matviichuk3n = 3Matviichuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSveshnykovMatviichukS − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.940.9−7.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSveshnykovMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 267 vs 290 / 61239%47.4%104 / 267 vs 290 / 612Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.836.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SveshnykovSveshnykov 1.73/Matviichuk 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Sveshnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sveshnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov—711811122V. Matviichuk—117114143
WJul 26 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov—1111113V. Matviichuk—6570
WMay 8 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov—11156113V. Matviichuk—9131171
LFeb 4 · 08:30R. Sveshnykov—611331V. Matviichuk—11811113
LFeb 2 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov—5760V. Matviichuk—1111113
LJan 28 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov—513681V. Matviichuk—111111113
LJan 23 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov—156781V. Matviichuk—131111113
LJan 20 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov—13114472V. Matviichuk—1191111103
LJan 15 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov—71111762V. Matviichuk—117911113
LJan 12 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov—111841V. Matviichuk—61111113
R. Sveshnykov10
WSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133WSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 15:00S. Honcharenko2.2511119123R. Sveshnykov1.577611101WSep 6 · 14:00Y. Urezchenko2.501411781R. Sveshnykov1.5016911113LSep 6 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.251181111113R. Sveshnykov3.7561113672WSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063WSep 5 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.611171193S. Honcharenko2.20911671WSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581LSep 5 · 14:00R. Sveshnykov3.756990I. Sorochan1.251111113WSep 3 · 17:33O. Levytskyi1.4491070R. Sveshnykov2.631112113
V. Matviichuk10
WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk1.6111411133S. Zherykhin2.209119111WSep 6 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi3.00911931V. Matviichuk1.3611711113WSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:00A. Danylov1.731171171V. Matviichuk2.0013115113LSep 6 · 05:00S. Zherykhin3.0011911113V. Matviichuk1.36711831LSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi2.0019119113V. Matviichuk1.731791171LSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691WSep 3 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.53111111113V. Hyriavyi2.38138871WSep 3 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.571111123S. Zherykhin2.2598100
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