TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078874
Played Sep 5Finished
Anatoliy Lysyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1917119911117––
Vasyl Matviichuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnatoliy Lysyi above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 19-17
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 94 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Anatoliy Lysyi 27–29 Vasyl Matviichuk Anatoliy Lysyi has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:33What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Matviichuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-29 in 56
Matviichuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysyi 1096 vs Matviichuk 1101
Matviichuk
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysyi 20% vs Matviichuk 40%
Matviichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysyi 20% vs Matviichuk 40%
Matviichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysyi -4 · Matviichuk -2
Lysyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matviichuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysyi 2.00 / Matviichuk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Matviichuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13078874
Lysyi2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 33 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Matviichuk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 75 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it81% 59 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysyi5wins
AwayMatviichuk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysyi50%3 of 6
AwayMatviichuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysyi6Matviichuk4n = 10Lysyi took 6 of 10
S2Lysyi3Matviichuk7n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S3Lysyi6Matviichuk4n = 10Lysyi took 6 of 10
S4Lysyi6Matviichuk3n = 9Lysyi took 6 of 9
S5Lysyi1Matviichuk2n = 3Matviichuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysyiMatviichukL − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.5−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysyiMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 417 vs 290 / 61342.5%47.3%177 / 417 vs 290 / 613Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.335.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukLysyi 2.00/Matviichuk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 08:30A. Lysyi—6171021V. Matviichuk—111512113
LAug 30 · 10:05A. Lysyi—1112451V. Matviichuk—71411113
WAug 30 · 05:30A. Lysyi—11711113V. Matviichuk—811481
LAug 24 · 10:11A. Lysyi—11831242V. Matviichuk—8111110113
WAug 24 · 05:30A. Lysyi—81111113V. Matviichuk—118581
LAug 10 · 10:30A. Lysyi—11771162V. Matviichuk—811113113
WAug 10 · 05:30A. Lysyi—961111113V. Matviichuk—11118382
LAug 3 · 06:30A. Lysyi—841151V. Matviichuk—11116113
WAug 2 · 16:59A. Lysyi—1111133V. Matviichuk—76110
WAug 2 · 14:30A. Lysyi—111011113V. Matviichuk—312791
A. Lysyi10
LSep 7 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko3.25111145133A. Lysyi1.33691111112WSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171LSep 6 · 08:30A. Danylov2.25121182113A. Lysyi1.57108111182LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Zherykhin2.0011991162A. Lysyi1.73111115113LSep 6 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.3011115262V. Hyriavyi3.40951111113LSep 5 · 17:04A. Lysyi3.2571161242R. Sveshnykov1.33119111063LSep 5 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.4081211113A. Lysyi2.751110581LSep 5 · 13:30S. Honcharenko1.4411411103A. Lysyi2.63511871LSep 5 · 12:30A. Lysyi4.007860I. Sorochan1.221111113
V. Matviichuk10
WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk1.6111411133S. Zherykhin2.209119111WSep 6 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi3.00911931V. Matviichuk1.3611711113WSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.834550V. Matviichuk1.831111113WSep 6 · 06:00A. Danylov1.731171171V. Matviichuk2.0013115113LSep 6 · 05:00S. Zherykhin3.0011911113V. Matviichuk1.36711831LSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.1311118113V. Matviichuk5.50491191LSep 5 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.731111103V. Matviichuk2.007420LSep 5 · 12:00S. Honcharenko1.538111192V. Matviichuk2.38118691WSep 3 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.53111111113V. Hyriavyi2.38138871WSep 3 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.571111123S. Zherykhin2.2598100
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